Port Vale's automatic promotion hopes are approaching last chance saloon territory as they host Newport on bank holiday Monday. Michael Beardmore provides the preview and a best bet.
Football betting tips: League Two
1pt Newport to score first at 7/4 (bet365, Coral)
If you want to know just how quickly things can change in football, ask followers of Port Vale and Newport County, two sides who meet at Vale Park on Monday.
Only two weeks ago, Vale were sitting pretty in the Sky Bet League Two automatic promotion spots after eight wins in nine – back-to-back defeats later, their destiny is out of their own hands.
Six weeks ago, Newport occupied third place, seemingly set for another tilt at promotion after two play-off final defeats in three years – five losses in seven games later, they can’t even make the top seven, consigned to the fourth tier for another season.
Do the Exiles have anything left in them to spoil Vale’s hopes or will the hosts take their automatic promotion battle to the final day of the season?
Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Monday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Port Vale 17/20 | Draw 23/10 | Newport 16/5
At odds-on, the hosts fail to appeal after conceding five goals in two games – defeat to promotion rivals Bristol Rovers was forgivable, but losing 2-0 at lowly Walsall raised several questions.
They know they have to win their final two games to have a chance of breaking back into the top three (even that might not be enough) – and that kind of pressure can send teams one of two ways.
They could well get back on track here, but a best price of 20/21 holds limited interest – other Vale win markets are skinny too: win and under 3.5 goals at 6/4 for example. The win to nil is 9/4 but risky.
I say risky because Newport are the division’s joint fourth highest scorers – and they actually lead the league in expected goals for (xGF), their 1.8 xG per game narrowly pipping leaders Forest Green.
They haven’t been as clinical as the teams at the top, though, and have also struggled at the back, conceding more goals than any other side in the top 11.
Nonetheless, they are a dangerous side, perhaps more so freed of the shackles of expectation – 3/1 tempts on an away win, but this could just as easily end in a draw.
I want the visitors onside in some fashion, though, and the 7/4 on offer for NEWPORT TO SCORE FIRST appears the perfect way in.
The Exiles have netted first in 14 of their past 22 matches – a pretty staggering stat considering their results have been up and down.
More importantly, it’s their away form that had kept them in contention for a top-seven spot – they have won five of their past eight away, scoring first in all of those victories.
Their 25-goal top scorer Dom Telford broke a 10-game drought by netting last time out – he’s 12/5 to score anytime but I prefer the extra safety of 7/4 on any Newport player to break the deadlock.
Port Vale v Newport score prediction and best bet
- Newport to score first at 7/4 (bet365, Coral)
Score prediction: Port Vale 1-2 Newport (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct at 1700 BST (28/04/22)
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