Free football betting tips: Premier League under/over betting coupon best bets from Infogol's expected goals model
Using expected goals (xG) data, Infogol’s Jake Osgathorpe picks out the best value bets in the overs/unders markets from across the weekend’s Premier League and Championship action.
Infogol is a revolutionary football product, which harnesses Opta data to power an expected goals model. Expected Goals quantifies the quality of a scoring opportunity, allocating each chance a probability of it finding the back of the net.
The xG metric can be used to assess teams and their performances, and it also helps to give an insight into future prospects, which in turn helps with betting.
Brighton vs Burnley – Under 2.5 Goals @ 4/5
Friday, 17:30
This is suddenly quite a big game at the foot of the table, with Brighton winless in five and on five points hosting a winless Burnley team bottom of the table.
Brighton’s underlying numbers have been impressive overall this term (1.5 xGF, 1.3 xGA per game), but they were deservedly beaten by Tottenham last weekend (xG: TOT 2.0 – 0.4 BHA) in what was their worst performance of the season to date.
The Seagulls sit in a false position according to xG, ranking 8th on expected points (xP), but while they continue to dominate football matches, they don’t seem to be able to take advantage. It was the same story last season too.
Burnley were well beaten by Chelsea last weekend, but the scoreline was harsh on the Clarets, with clinical finishing to thank for a 3-0 result (xG: BUR 0.5 – 1.2 CHE).
Defensively they have looked solid this season, allowing just 1.2 xGA per game on average, but going forward they are yet to click, racking up a measly 0.9 xGF per game and registering just three non-penalty big chances (>0.35 xG).
They have their starters back fit now, so that process should improve, but defensively they won’t allow Brighton to create much, even though Graham Potter’s side will dominate the football.
Under 2.5 goals is the play I like in what I expect to be a tight and cagey game.
Crystal Palace vs Leeds – Under 2.5 Goals @ 8/11
Saturday, 15:00
Crystal Palace were again tame in their attacking performance last weekend, losing to Wolves in a game in which they struggled to create any chances of note (xG: WOL 1.9 – 0.9 CRY).
They are a front-running team given the counter-attacking style they play, and this means that when/if they go behind in matches, they rarely get back in them. Only 14% of Palace’s xGF this season has come when they have been trailing, compared to 58% when leading.
All of this means that the first goal is crucial in every Palace game.
After a sensational win at Villa Park, Leeds were brought back down to earth on Monday night by Leicester, getting thrashed 4-1 at home thanks to a poor defensive display (xG: LEE 1.9 – 3.0 LEI).
They have been far from convincing defensively throughout the season so far (1.9 xGA per game), though it is hard to see this Crystal Palace team causing them the same amount of issues as they have faced recently.
A defensive-minded Palace should again offer little in attack, while Leeds may struggle to break the Eagles down, so I like the under 2.5 again for this game.
West Ham vs Fulham – Over 2.5 Goals @ 4/5
Saturday, 20:00
West Ham’s four game unbeaten run came to an end at Anfield last weekend, as they were rightly beaten (xG: LIV 1.5 – 0.3 WHU), but their start to the season has been excellent.
They have collected eight points from one of the toughest schedules and boast an impressive process in the process too (1.5 xGF, 1.2 xGA per game), so they deserve a lot of respect.
Michail Antonio is missing for this, but the Hammers still have enough attacking quality to put Fulham to the sword at the London Stadium.
The Cottagers got their first win of the season on Monday, beating a poor West Brom side in comfortable fashion in a game which was, unsurprisingly, their best defensive display of the season (xG: FUL 1.5 – 0.5 WBA).
Scott Parker’s side had really struggled prior to that win, posting a process of 1.2 xGF and 1.8 xGA per game, with that defensive number concerning, especially as they have allowed 12 non-pen big chances (>0.35 xG).
They do boast some talented attacking players, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them score here, but they are likely to concede a few, so over 2.5 goals looks good at the prices.
West Brom vs Tottenham – Under 3.5 Goals @ 2/5
Sunday, 12:00
West Brom remain winless in this Premier League season and are on pace to be the worst attacking team in the Premier League since Infogol started collected data in 2014.
The Baggies are averaging 0.5 xGF per game through seven matches, a pathetically low total, and if the continue in the same manner then they will beat the record currently held by 15/16 Aston Villa of 0.8 xGF per game.
This is hugely alarming and means that they will almost certainly be in a relegation battle come the end of the season unless drastic changes are made. Their poor attack is likely due to an overly defensive mind-set, which has reduced their xGA in recent weeks (1.2 xGA per game last four).
Tottenham moved up to third with their deserved win over Brighton last weekend, as they continue to look an improved side under Jose Mourinho, sitting second in our xG table.
Only Liverpool (2.5 xGF per game) have a better attacking process than Spurs this season (2.2 xGF per game), but up against this defensive block, they may be limited in what they can create.
They have the players to blow West Brom away, and while they will likely win, I can’t see it being a crushing scoreline, so taking under 3.5 is a sensible play, admittedly at a short price.
Leicester vs Wolves – Under 2.5 Goals @ 8/15
Sunday, 14:00
Leicester picked up a sensational win at Elland Road on Monday night, following on from their 1-0 success at the Emirates a week earlier, as it looks as though they have hit their stride.
They are becoming a very versatile team under Brendan Rodgers, able to play in several different ways but remaining very competitive, and that does mean they are evolving as a team.
Process-wise, they have been impressive so far this season (1.8 xGF, 1.3 xGA per game), continuing from last season’s performances, but they face a tough test here against one of the league’s best defences.
Wolves are unbeaten in four heading into this, and they too won at Leeds a few weeks back, but most recently beat Crystal Palace comfortably at Molineux, keeping their fourth clean sheet in seven games.
Nuno Espirito Santo’s side have stingy of late, allowing just 0.9 xGA per game since their out of character blip against West Ham, with this Wolves side one of the most organised units in the top flight.
However, they have failed to get going in attack this term, generating 1.1 xGF per game – down from 1.6 xGF per game (19/20) – in the absence of Diogo Jota.
When these two sides met last season, it’s fair to say the games were a snooze fest, as both matches ended goalless. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see something similar here given how closely matched these sides are, so under 2.5 goals looks the only way to go in this match-up.
Odds correct at 1730 GMT (05/11/20)
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