Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Bruno Fernandes 1+ assist at 7/2 (bet365)
Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Home 23/10 | Draw 13/5 | Away 11/10
To say Nottingham Forest winning at Newcastle took the edge off my Christmas would be an exaggeration, but it certainly irked me a little.
It’s not because I don’t want Nuno to have a great impact at the City Ground, far from it, it was frustration with myself at not quite committing to how I felt the match may go and instead plumping for a 12/1 long shot based around a goalless draw rather than outright backing a 13/2 upset.
To a degree at least, I really wasn't surprised. The former Wolves boss is a much better fit than Steve Cooper was for this squad of players but I certainly didn't anticipate was he would get Forest firing quite so quickly, Newcastle would capitulate quite so badly and Chris Wood would rediscover his goalscoring touch quite so spectacularly.
As for Manchester United, how many times have we been here before? Unfortunately, the neat timing of Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s investment in the club being announced 48 hours prior to their come-from-behind victory over Aston Villa played into the predictably hyperbolic narrative that this was not merely “a turning point” as all previous false dawns have been, but better yet “the start of a new era”.
United did improve in the second half when chasing the game but Villa had an off 45 minutes, triggered by an uncharacteristic error by Diego Carlos which allowed Erik ten Hag’s side back into the match. Coverage of the winning goal was rightly dominated by Rasmus Hojlund breaking his scoring duck, but there was incredible fortune via a perfectly cushioned assist from the thigh of John McGinn.
Manchester United have won back-to-back league games twice this season. On both occasions those wins came either side of an international break.
"I think, as a squad, we are not good enough to be consistent and we have to work as a squad to improve that," were Ten Hag's own words following their 3-0 humbling by Bournemouth at Old Trafford on December 9, three days after a strong performance in a home victory over Chelsea.
This could of course be the fixture where the Red Devils finally display consistency. Backing them to do so, however, would be foolish.
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One man, however, whose consistent performance hasn't been far behind his consistent whinging on the pitch is BRUNO FERNANDES.
Hard to love because of his unsavoury on-pitch persona yes, but the United captain is streets ahead of his team-mates in terms of creative output.
It's easy to undervalue his impact as the Portugal international doesn't make any Premier League assists chart due to his colleagues' wastefulness.
While he has just three assists to his name, only Mohamed Salah (7.0) and Kieran Tripper (6.3) can better his 6.1 xA (expected assists).
The 7/2 available about a FERNANDES ASSIST at the City Ground looks a tad large, especially considering most firms are pricing it around 2/1.
- Bruno Fernandes to score or assist
- Morgan Gibbs-White to score assist
- Nottingham Forest to win
- Both teams to score
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Anthony Elanga and Chris Wood have provided four goals and three assists between them in Nuno's opening two games as Forest boss, shielding just how impressive MORGAN GIBBS-WHITE has been under the new boss.
The former Wolves midfielder did still provide an assist against Bournemouth and has been centre of everything good for Forest this term, so expect him to be the driving force at the City Ground on Saturday.
Team news
Nottingham Forest have Willy Boly back from suspension after he was sent off in the home defeat by Bournemouth a week ago but it feels unlikely Nuno will make changes to the side who comprehensively won 3-1 at Newcastle on Boxing Day.
Ibrahim Sangare serves a one-game ban though, so Orel Mangala, Ryan Yates and Nicolas Dominguez will replace him. Taiwo Awoniyi, Felipe and Serge Aurier remain out.
Manchester United boss Erik ten Hag will have to decide whether Raphael Varane and Christian Eriksen are fit enough to start again after the duo returned from injury to play the full 90 minutes in their comeback win over Aston Villa. Luke Shaw and Sofyan Amrabat missed that game but could return, as could Anthony Martial who has been missing through illness.
Victor Lindelof, Harry Maguire, Tyrell Malacia, Lisandro Martinez, Casemiro and Mason Mount remain sidelined.
Predicted line-ups
Forest: Turner; Montiel, Niakhate, Murillo, Aina; Mangala, Danilo; Elanga, Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi; Wood
Man Utd: Onana; Wan-Bissaka, Varane, Evans, Dalot; Mainoo, McTominay; Garnacho, Fernandes, Rashford; Hojlund
Match facts
- Nottingham Forest have lost their last 11 meetings with Manchester United in all competitions, including each of the last four at home by an aggregate score of 17-1.
- Manchester United have won their last 11 meetings with Nottingham Forest in all competitions – onlyagainst Aston Villa (2003-2008) and Wigan Athletic (2005-2011) have they ever had longer winning runs (14 in both instances).
- Nottingham Forest’s only Premier League win against Manchester United came at Old Trafford in December 1994 (2-1) – their last home league win against them was in March 1992, 1-0 thanks to a Nigel Clough strike.
- Nottingham Forest have only won their final league game in one of the last nine calendar years (D2 L6), beating Wigan 1-0 in 2019. Their final game of 2022 was a 3-0 defeat to Manchester United.
- Manchester United haven’t lost their final league game in any of the last 11 calendar years (W8 D3), since a 3-2 home loss to Blackburn Rovers in 2011. They’ve won each of the last five in a row.
- Manchester United lost their previous Premier League game against an opponent starting the day in the bottom half of the table (0-3 v Bournemouth). They haven’t lost consecutive games against such opposition since October/November 2021, when they lost against Leicester (13th) and Watford (17th) under Ole Gunnar Solskjær.
- Manchester United have failed to score in each of their last three Premier League away games, losing 1-0 to Newcastle, drawing 0-0 with Liverpool and losing 2-0 at West Ham. They’ve not gone four league games on the road without a goal since April 1989.
- Nottingham Forest boss Nuno Espírito Santo has only won one of his seven Premier League games against Manchester United (D3 L3), losing each of the last three in a row. Among teams he has faced 5+ times in the competition, only against Liverpool (0 wins in six) does he have a lower win percentage than against the Red Devils (14%).
- With four goals and one assist, Chris Wood has been involved in each of Nottingham Forest’s last five Premier League goals. He has as many goal contributions in his last two league games (4 goals, 1 assist) as he had in his previous 27 combined (5 goals).
- Man Utd’s Antony has only scored one goal in his last 18 away appearances in the Premier League, although that one strike did come in this exact fixture last season. Indeed, the Brazilian scored and assisted away to Nottingham Forest in April (a 2-0 win) – the only time he’s done so in a single game in the competition.
Odds correct at 1200 GMT (29/12/23)
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