Nottingham Forest need a victory in their hunt for survival, but it's going to be a huge ask facing Manchester United on Sunday.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Antony to score or assist at 13/8 (Sky Bet)
1pt Bruno Fernandes 1+ offsides at 17/4 (Ladbrokes)
Home is where the heart is for Nottingham Forest, you know, like that wooden, chipped paint-style sign in your aunt's house directly opposite the Live, Laugh, Love one.
Steve Cooper's side have gained 78% of their points this season at the City Ground, hardly a surprise, but something that highlights just how much they are getting results in front of their own supporters.
This shouldn't be the case in Sunday's main game though.
With no wins in their last nine games following a January revival, Forest are in trouble. Sitting in the bottom-three of the Premier League table, there's a real possibility of that miserable run continuing against a European contender.
Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Nottingham Forest 4/1 | Draw 29/10 | Manchester United 4/6
They can hold some confidence in the fact that they've only lost four of their 15 outings at home. The issue is, only one win has come against those sides currently sat in the top-half.
That was the 1-0 success over Liverpool, a game where both sides had some seriously good chances to find the net. The away side posted 2.52 xG to Forest's 2.44 - despair for the over 2.5 backers.
Games against Tottenham and Newcastle have ended in comfortable defeats, with Fulham also successful in their early season trip to the East Midlands.
They may have drawn with Manchester City but how on earth the visitors didn't score at least three in that one remains a mystery. Essentially, while Forest's home form is good, it's largely come against teams they know they have to beat.
Manchester United threw away that two-goal advantage in the Europa League on Thursday but they're in a decent position to get victory here.
Forest's form is a significant factor in this, but Erik ten Hag's side haven't exactly secured a top-four spot yet either. They can't afford any poor results - particularly as Tottenham hold a better goal difference. Brighton and Villa are also in the mix.
I wouldn't be against taking an away win at around the 4/6 marker, with the Asian Handicap currently showing at -0.75, but naturally my eyes are drawn elsewhere to try and find a bit of extra value.
At 13/8, I'm willing to gamble on ANTONY TO SCORE OR ASSIST given that we're expecting the away side to see some chances.
While probably best known to many for spinning around like some weird Beyblade, I'm surprised to see that he's only scored three in the Premier League this season.
If you throw in all competitions, including a few with Ajax before his move, the winger is on nine goals and three assists in 37 games - finding the net in European knockout wins over Barcelona and Real Betis.
Antony averages 2.7 shots per game in England's top-flight - the second-highest in this United squad - but if he was playing more minutes like Marcus Rashford he'd likely overtake him in this metric.
From this, at least a shot has come in every away game - with two or more coming in seven of the eight. A point of interest is that three came against Palace and five against Wolves - fellow strugglers to Forest.
He also created three chances in their away win at Everton, with the same at Chelsea, so while we're not using the 'flat track bully' term, he's clearly someone who does more against those at the bottom as he fully settles in.
Staying with this Manchester United attack, and the 17/4 best price on BRUNO FERNANDES 1+ OFFSIDES is certainly interesting.
Here's the top line from this selection - Bruno is caught offside far more in games away than he is at Old Trafford.
In 15 home league games this season, the midfielder has been flagged offside at least once in just two of them. That would deliver a win rate of 13.3% - with the 'latest' one being the 2-0 win over Tottenham in mid-October.
Focus on away and the number is much better. He's been caught in six of 13 games, a win rate of 46.2%. All of those have come in the last nine - a far better 66.7% if you focus on 'recent' form.
Perhaps it's that United have more dominance in home contests, with the opposition not willing to be so brave and leave options on the counter.
An away win is a likely outcome, but with prices short, the best bets come in backing ANTONY and FERNANDES to be involved.
Nottingham Forest v Manchester United best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Antony to score or assist at 13/8 (Sky Bet)
- 1pt Bruno Fernandes 1+ offsides at 17/4 (Ladbrokes)
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 0-2 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 1230 BST (14/04/23)
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