Nottingham Forest host fellow relegation-battlers Leeds United in a six-pointer at the City Ground. Michael Beardmore has a preview and two best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Joe Worrall to be shown a card at 5/1 (Unibet)
1pt Brennan Johnson to be shown a card at 6/1 (Unibet)
It’s fair to say the Premier League form of each side heading into Sunday’s important clash at the City Ground has been somewhat divergent since the World Cup break.
Jesse Marsch’s Leeds have claimed just three points from a possible 15 in that time – via draws with Newcastle, West Ham and Brentford – and they are winless in six Premier League games overall.
Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, have collected eight points in the same timeframe, losing just once, at Manchester United and picking up key wins over Southampton and Leicester to leapfrog Leeds.
Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Forest 8/5 | Draw 12/5 | Leeds 13/8
Forest’s home form has been the bedrock of their improvement over recent months – they have lost only once on the banks of the River Trent since the start of October, to United in the Carabao Cup.
In that time, they have beaten Liverpool, Tottenham, Crystal Palace and Leicester as well as holding Chelsea – they have been strong at home, whereas Leeds have been pretty poor away, picking up just five points on their travels, from a possible 27.
Their better results seem to come against the top teams, beating Liverpool at Anfield and holding Newcastle at St James’ Park, but losing to Palace, Aston Villa and Leicester among others.
Nonetheless, Leeds have made some impressive January signings, ones you suspect can guide them to safety, and Forest have a growing injury list – including influential pair Morgan Gibbs-White and Taiwo Awoniyi plus goalkeeper Dean Henderson.
The bookies are struggling to separate the sides and it is tough to make a compelling case for either given the reasons outlined above so I’m heading instead to the officiating markets and a card-happy Forest pair.
JOE WORRALL has amassed five bookings this season in just 16 games so the price of 5/1 on him to be SHOWN A CARD appeals when you consider the tricky attacking talents Leeds have in their ranks.
Worrall is an old-school centre-half averaging 1.9 tackles and 1.1 fouls per game – he gets stuck in and while he has done okay in his first Premier League season, he can be caught out.
I also want an interest in BRENNAN JOHNSON in this market at 6/1. He’s had a bit of fire under him recently, two bookings in his past three games and, like Worrall, averages 1.1 fouls per game.
With contrasting form, injuries and unpredictable line-ups all making this tough to call, it should pay to stick with two players who will start and have a habit of attracting referees’ attention - and ref Rob Jones is averaging 3.7 cards a game this term.
Nottingham Forest v Leeds score prediction and best bets
- Joe Worrall to be shown a card at 5/1 (Unibet)
- Brennan Johnson to be shown a card at 6/1 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct 1500 (02/02/23)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
