Nottingham Forest v Cardiff City: Championship best bets and preview
The Sky Bet Championship's bottom side Nottingham Forest host Cardiff on Sunday lunchtime - and Michael Beardmore is using his head to back Mick McCarthy's set-piece specialists.
Football betting tips: Sky Bet Championship
1pt First goal to be a header at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
1pt Ryan Giles to assist a goal at 5/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Ryan Giles to assist 2+ goals at 66/1 (Sky Bet)
Both Nottingham Forest and Cardiff City can feel somewhat aggrieved their starts to the Sky Bet Championship season have not been better points-wise ahead of their meeting at the City Ground on Sunday.
It’s Forest in by far the more precarious position, bottom of the table, but all four of their defeats have come by a single goal and Infogol’s model suggests they should be eight places higher.
Goals have been the problem for Chris Hughton’s side – not only that but the paucity of chances created too, with their Expected Goals For (xGF) tally of just 3.2 in five games the division’s lowest.
Mick McCarthy’s Cardiff, meanwhile, sit ninth but should be third according to their xG performance metrics, unlucky to lose at home to Bristol City before the international break and to only draw their opener against Barnsley.
Kick-off time: 14:30 BST, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
Nottm Forest 9/5 | Draw 21/10 | Cardiff 8/5
The visitors are slight favourites here and if I was to plump for an outright result, that’s the way I’d be heading, but Forest can’t keep losing 2-1 – their luck could turn and that might happen here.
Instead, I’m content to head down a different avenue – one where the numbers jump out at you like a jack in the box, namely the methods by which Cardiff’s goals have arrived and their sources.
Discounting an own goal, Cardiff have scored eight Championship goals this season – and all eight have been headers. They have height in their team – six footers everywhere – and they use it.
Sky Bet’s ‘First Goal Method’ market tends to be a static one – i.e. one that rarely changes no matter the game – and we can use that to our advantage here.
Given 100% of Cardiff’s goals have been headers, with one of Forest’s four coming that way too, the 9/2 offered on THE FIRST GOAL TO BE A HEADER looks hugely overpriced.
Remarkably, central defender Aden Flint has scored four of those eight goals – it’s a stunning run of goalscoring form, even for a regular scorer from centre-half who averages a goal per 7.5 games in his career.
He’s an 18/1 Sky Bet boost to score a header against Forest and I wouldn’t put you off – but I just feel Flint will be, literally, a marked man, given his recent run.
Nonetheless, set-pieces are Cardiff’s likeliest source of goals so it makes sense to use the assists markets to side with a man who has been tasked with delivering them.
Ryan Giles has enjoyed a superb start to his loan spell from Wolves, recording four assists – one from a corner, one from a free-kick and two from open play. Two of those even came during a half-hour substitute appearance against Millwall.
So strong are Cardiff from set-pieces that the 5/1 Sky Bet offer on GILES TO ASSIST 1+ GOALS looks huge, given it would have landed in three of the Bluebirds’ five matches thus far.
Indeed, it’s worth a small play on the attacking midfielder to replicate his tally against the Lions and for GILES TO ASSIST 2+ GOALS which is a whopping 66/1, again with Sky Bet.
- CLICK HERE to back Ryan Giles to assist 1+ goals with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Ryan Giles to assist 2+ goals with Sky Bet
Cardiff are using their head so far this season and it makes sense to use ours accordingly – by backing a headed goal to break the deadlock and their chief set-piece taker to provide it.
Nottingham Forest v Cardiff best bets and score prediction
- First goal to be a header at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
- Ryan Giles to assist a goal at 5/1 (Sky Bet)
- Ryan Giles to assist 2+ goals at 66/1 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 0-2 Cardiff (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 1830 BST (10/09/21)
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