Super Sunday sees Leeds hosting Liverpool, and Jake Osgathorpe is fairly bullish about the visitors chances.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Liverpool to win at 4/5 (Mansion Bet)
Leeds host Liverpool in Sunday’s sole Premier League game, with Marcelo Bielsa’s side still looking for their first win of the season.
I have been disappointed with Leeds thus far, with their attack not firing on all cylinders and their defence looking as vulnerable as last season.
Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Leeds 15/4 | Draw 3/1 | Liverpool 4/6
So far this season, Leeds have averaged just 1.12 xGF per game, while allowing 1.60 xGA per game.
Defensively, that is a similar level to last season (1.72), but what saw them finish in the top half in 20/21 was an attacking output that rivalled the league’s best (1.63).
With their attack currently struggling, Leeds are very much a bottom half team thanks to their defence, and when you couple that with their results and performances against the leagues elite last season, then LIVERPOOL TO WIN starts to appeal.
Since returning to the Premier League, Leeds have lost six of 13 games against the ‘big six’ – and for now we are still including Arsenal in that – while conceding an average of 2.13 xGA per game.
Against the better teams in the league then, Leeds get exposed defensively, and that trend should continue here.
Liverpool created more than enough to deserve the three points against Chelsea last time out, but were frustrated by Thomas Tuchel’s stubborn side.
The Reds have been clicking in attack this term, with Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane seemingly well-rested after a summer off.
So far this season Liverpool have generated over 2.0 xGF in all of their games, so should have no issues creating at Elland Road.
Defensively they look much more solid too with the return of Virgil van Dijk and so the best price of 4/5 for them to win at Leeds looks too big.
Interestingly, Liverpool were priced around the 6/10 mark to win at Elland Road in April, and that was with Fabinho and Ozan Kabak at centre-back and Mohamed Salah on the bench.
We are now getting a bigger price about them with a stronger team, and the jump in odds – which has incorporated fans being back in the stadium – just looks too big.
Leeds v Liverpool best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Liverpool to win at 4/5 (MansionBet)
Score prediction: Leeds 1-3 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 1320 BST (10/09/21)
