Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Nottingham Forest to be relegated at 7/1 (General)
0.5pt Nottingham Forest to finish bottom at 80/1 (BetVictor)
Evangelos Marinakis’ decision to sack Nuno Esprito Santo could prove costly. His decision to replace him with Ange Postecoglou looks like tactical suicide, any idiot could tell you that.
When the news broke late on Monday night that Nuno was gone, the first thing I did was check NOTTINGHAM FOREST’s relegation odds.
Interestingly, they have actually drifted since the beginning of September but are 7/1 generally TO BE RELEGATED and 80/1 TO FINISH BOTTOM with BetVictor.
I’ll be having a slice of both because it feels like the club has made a big mistake. For those of you with Betway accounts, the former is 9/1.
Premier League Relegation odds (Sky Bet)
- Burnley - 2/5
- Wolves, Sunderland - 5/6
- Leeds - 9/4
- Brentford, West Ham - 5/2
- Nottingham Forest - 11/2
Odds correct at 1545 BST (09/09/25)
It is easy to forget, this is only Nottingham Forest’s fourth season back in the Premier League.
Steve Cooper was in charge when they came up via the play-offs from the Championship and his side signed 30 players during the 2022/23 campaign.
Forest then made 17 signings the following season, but a poor start meant Cooper was given the chop six days before Christmas. He was replaced by Nuno.
Despite the scattergun approach to transfers, Nuno managed to carve out a squad suited to his style of play. I suppose when you sign a smorgasbord of players from all corners of the planet, some of them are bound to suit, but Nuno deserves credit.
Jose Mourinho’s disciple inherited a side in the bottom three, guiding them to safety despite a four-point deduction. He then followed that up by improving them by 10 places and 29 points (without the points deduction) last campaign.
His appointment did feel like a happy accident though and not a clear tactical ploy to get the best out the squad, and the same can probably be said about Postecoglou’s.
Nuno’s stint wasn’t perfect though, the cracks were starting to appear for Forest last season.
They racked up 47 points across the first 24 games, which left them six points clear of 6th with Champions League qualification in their hands.
After they beat Brighton 7-0, opponents stopped playing into their contain-and-counter approach and Nuno didn’t have the answers. Across the remaining 14 games, his side took 18 points and dropped to 7th.
Writing ahead of the campaign, I suggested Nuno either needs the clichéd plan B or more quality to execute plan A and after just three games, I couldn’t tell you if he got either.
Postecoglou, his replacement, certainly isn’t the poster boy for tactical versatility and the squad at his disposal doesn’t exactly suit Ange-ball.
It's a vastly talented squad but it did overachieve last season with Chris Wood outscoring his xG and Matz Sels outperforming his post-shot xG metrics.
Don’t forget, alongside the Europa League trophy, Ange’s Tottenham finished in 17th spot, averaging a point per game.
So, you have a squad which overachieved last season now with the added burden of the Europa League this campaign, a tactically one-dimensional manager replacing another, all played out under the reign of a brash but box office owner in Marinakis.
Ange's appointment might prove to be a masterstroke but I get the sense this managerial change could prove to be the catalyst for regression and if it does implode at the City Ground, it could implode in spectacular fashion.
It’s why backing Forest to be relegated and to finish bottom feel like two ambitious punts worth taking.
Odds correct at 1545 BST (09/09/25)
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