Norwich v Southampton tips: Premier League best bets and preview
Norwich host Southampton in Dean Smith's first game in charge of the Canaries and Jake Pearson has previewed the fixture, picking out a 27/10 best bet.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Norwich to win at 27/10 (William Hill, Unibet)
Dean Smith will take charge of his first game as Norwich manager as the Canaries welcome Southampton to Carrow Road.
Interestingly, in one of the many oddities that football seems to constantly throw up, Southampton were also the last team he faced as Aston Villa manager, a game he lost 1-0.
Smith undoubtedly has a tough task on his hands, Norwich currently a general 1/7 shot for relegation, but in truth, they are only five points adrift of safety, the same as Newcastle, and they come into this match on the back of a win.
Amazingly, their 2-1 victory over Brentford prior to the international break – their first win in 20 Premier League matches, stretching back to the last time they were in the top flight – was the point at which the board decided enough was enough for Daniel Farke and gave him his marching orders.
Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
Norwich 13/5 | Draw 12/5 | Southampton 21/20
That is not to say his dismissal was undeserved. Aside from being bottom of the table and having conceded 26 goals, their underlying numbers showed little signs of improvement, allowing the most chances in the division as well as creating the fewest according to Expected Goals.
Delia and her advisors pulled the trigger, and now Smith (Dean, not Delia) is tasked with solidifying the leakiest defence in the division, while also improving the least potent attack.
There is reason to believe he can do it though, particularly given what he achieved with Aston Villa post ‘Project Restart’.
With his Villa side allowing an average of 2.41 expected goals against (xGA) per game before the break, Smith used the time afforded to him during lockdown to improve a desperately poor defensive process, averaging 1.04 xGA per game in the remaining games of the 2019/20 season. If he can work similar miracles at Norwich, they could be in with a chance of survival.
Southampton currently look to have no such worries, putting their poor start to the season – winless in their opening seven – swiftly behind them to collect 10 points from their last four matches.
They are unbeaten in that period and have pulled six points clear of the relegation zone, testament to what a good run of form can do for a struggling side.
The Saints have shored things up at the back of late, allowing over 1.0 xGA in all but one of their opening seven, but conceding an average of just 0.75 xGA in their last four. However, they are leaving games on a knife-edge, and that can count against you as well as for.
In fact, Southampton’s Expected Goal Difference of -0.3 demonstrates just how closely contested their matches tend to be, and perfectly explains their record of three wins, five draws and three defeats: chance is a large factor in their results.
It also gives credence to the theory that not too much emphasis should be placed on their current good run of form, just as it should not have been placed on their bad run of form at the beginning of the season.
The Saints are a middling team in almost every aspect, which makes them more than beatable on any given day.
An important thing to get out of way at this stage is the idea that ‘new manager bounce’ is behind the decision to tip up NORWICH TO WIN.
Smith may improve Norwich in the long term, and even in the very short term his appointment may have an impact on performances, but siding with a team based solely on the fact they have appointed a new manager would be folly. Siding with Norwich because they have been overpriced is a much better reason for doing so.
Southampton are in good form, but it is important to remember that a good run of form is often to do with luck, and or regression to the mean, much more than punters, and indeed bookmakers, often think.
It is difficult to agree with the assumption that Southampton would win this match almost half the time, as the price implies, were it played over and over again - their results this season tell us as much.
With that in mind, siding with Smith to get off to a winning start as Norwich boss is the way to go in this fixture, with the price of 27/10 about the Canaries to beat a side with just one away victory all season a little too big.
Norwich v Southampton best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Norwich to win at 27/10 (William Hill, Unibet)
Score prediction: Norwich 1-0 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 1030 BST (18/11/21)
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