Norwich welcome Leeds for their Premier League clash on Sunday and Tom Carnduff picks out two best bets to back.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Leeds to have 16+ total shots at 11/5 (Betfair)
1pt Leeds to have 20+ total shots at 15/2 (Betfair)
Norwich's season is already looking like one of disaster despite the fact we've only played nine games. They are bottom of th Premier League table with just two points and two goals - 23 in the conceded column shows how one-sided some of their games have been.
They also come into this one on the back of a 7-0 hammering by Chelsea. In Leeds, they face a side potential low on confidence given they only have one win in nine. Four draws leave them five points clear of Sunday's opponents though.
The Canaries have hardly given their home crowd much to shout about with eight conceded from four outings and an xGA of 7.6. They have been wasteful in front of goal too - both goals have come at home yet their xGF is 5.4.
Leeds are an odds-against price here and while they have struggled, key players returning to fitness should bolster their chances. They won comfortably when these two sides met in the Sky Bet Championship - it could be a similar outcome on Sunday.
Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Norwich 12/5 | Draw 13/5 | Leeds 21/20
While Leeds' attacking output has decreased significantly this season, they are still seeing efforts towards goal and it does open up value in the team shots markets available with a few bookmakers.
Marcelo Bielsa's side are averaging 14 shots per game in the Premier League this season and 15 in all competitions. It's worth noting that the average is affected by nine shots against Liverpool, ten against Manchester United and a tiny three in a very poor performance at Southampton.
They have more than played their part against teams at the bottom end of the division and I was surprised to see a price as big as 11/5 available on LEEDS TO HAVE 16+ TOTAL SHOTS here. That is something they have done on more than one occasion already.
Those games against better teams have dragged down an average that is boosted by contests with those around them. Backing Leeds in the 16 or more market would have won in four of their games with them falling one short against West Ham.
Two of those have come in their last three Premier League matches. The opponents for some of the bigger tallies catch the eye - Watford and Newcastle were relegation fancies alongside Norwich.
Norwich's shots against per game average is 16.1 - the second-highest in the league - but Leeds involvement is what drives this bet.
Considering the 20+ posted by Leeds against Newcastle and Watford, there is also appeal in backing the 15/2 on LEEDS TO HAVE 20+ TOTAL SHOTS if they are on the front foot throughout.
Due to the value in the Leeds shot market, we're not putting points behind another bet of interest but one worth considering. Max Aarons and Grant Hanley to make 5+ tackles between them is currently 4/1 with Sky Bet and looks decent.
Across all games in all competitions this season, Leeds' opponents have averaged 14.8 tackles per game. Aarons is averaging 1.6 tackles per game and has seen at least one in eight of his nine appearances so far.
For Hanley, he's seen at least two tackles in three of his last five Premier League games with three coming in the home defeat to Watford. He could be busy with the potential Leeds attacking line-up.
Leeds' odds-against price is an attractive outright option - as would any team at that price against Norwich this season - but the most interesting option can be found in backing a high LEEDS SHOTS count.
Norwich v Leeds best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Leeds to have 16+ total shots at 11/5 (Betfair)
- 1pt Leeds to have 20+ total shots at 15/2 (Betfair)
Score prediction: Norwich 0-2 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 1600 BST (28/10/21)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
