Bottom side Norwich host high-flying Brighton, and Jake Osgathorpe is unsurprisingly getting the Seagulls onside.
1.5pts Brighton to win at 23/20 (William Hill, Mansion Bet)
1pt Brighton to keep a clean sheet at 13/8 (Sky Bet, Bet365)
Norwich have picked up from where they left off the last time they were in the Premier League.
The Canaries failed to win any of their final 10 games during their relegation campaign of 19/20, and have started the 21/22 season winless in seven.
It isn't a surprise to again see them struggling, losing their best player in the summer and not replacing him, plus keeping with the majority of the same squad and same manager from last time they were in the top-flight.
The underlying numbers put up by Daniel Farke's side are simply woeful. They prop up the table of every major metric in both attack and defence.
If they continue in the same manner we have seen so far this term, Norwich will go very close to breaking Derby's record low points total of 11 from 07/08 - that is how bad they have been.
Defence is obviously an issue, but they have offered such little threat going forward that they just don't look like winning any football match.
Even at Burnley last time out - a game against a likely relegation rival - they mustered just 0.53 xGF, and that came after racking up just 0.75 at home to fellow promotion side Watford.
This weekend, they welcome an in-form Brighton side who will be looking to build on an excellent start to the campaign.
The Seagulls have been a tad fortunate in some games this season - a nice change from last term where they were the most unfortunate team in the league based on xG metrics - but are still performing like a top half team.
We are yet to see them reach the same heights in attack as they managed last season based on xGF, but defensively they look as solid.
Only Manchester City (0.62 xGA per game), Wolves (1.04) and Everton (1.07) have been better defensively than Graham Potter's side (1.09), while no team has conceded fewer non-penalty big chances (0.35 xG+) than Brighton's four.
With Brighton looking excellent at the back again, and Norwich struggling to create chances, ranking as the worst attacking team through seven games, the 13/8 available about BRIGHTON KEEPING A CLEAN SHEET looks a cracking bet.
With Brighton expected to keep Norwich out, the question then becomes; Will Brighton score?
I believe the answer to that is yes. The Canaries are incredibly vulnerable defensively, and Brighton have more than enough about them to net at least once.
So with that in mind, BRIGHTON TO WIN becomes the second selection in this preview.
Potter's side are full of confidence, whereas Norwich are at rock-bottom posting atrocious underlying numbers, so an away win looks likely.
Score prediction: Norwich 0-2 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Odds correct at 1640 BST (14/10/21)
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