Arsenal welcome Newcastle to the Emirates on Monday night looking to continue their fine form at home. Tom Carnduff has a 16/1 headline tip.
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Arsenal v Newcastle (Emirates Stadium, Sky Sports Main Event, 2000 GMT)
Newcastle's recent upturn in form has fired them seven points clear of the drop zone and they are now in a fantastic position to stay up.
Rafa Benitez's men have picked up points in their last six, losing just one game during that run, although they have only won one of their last nine away from home.
In Arsenal, they come up against a side who have been terrific in front of their own supporters. They've only lost three of their 25 games in all competitions at the Emirates this season, while they secured victory over Manchester United in their last league outing.
Unai Emery's men will be full of confidence for this one and should have little issue in wrapping up the three points, that's even if the unlikely situation arises where both Aaron Ramsey and Granit Xhaka are unavailable through injury.
Both should play though which only further strengthens Arsenal's chances of success. The Asian Handicap puts Arsenal at -1.25, which shows how they are expected to securing the three points with a buffer zone in the scoreline.
The percentages also heavily play into a win for the home side. That's reflected in their 2/5 price for victory, highlighting why the outright market may be one to avoid.
Arsenal -1 is the avenue to explore when it comes to picking a winner with Betfair and Paddy Power offering 11/10, most other firms are floating around the even money mark which will mean that there is still value to be had even if the best price goes.
I'm looking at Xhaka to shine though following a positive performance against Manchester United and his impact during the international break, despite going off injured in their last game.
The real value is in the goalscorers though and taking the big prices available on the midfielder to strike on Monday night.
Score prediction: Arsenal 3-0 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Their home record is the huge positive in a decent season for the Gunners and that sets this up to be a straightforward victory for Emery's side. Newcastle have had issues securing results on the road and have lost on away trips to Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham. That poor run at top-six sides should continue here.
Best bet: Granit Xhaka to score anytime at 15/2
The midfielder has found the net on multiple occasions this season, including a goal in the reverse fixture at St. James' Park. The 15/2 best price on a goal anytime in this one looks great value considering the venue and the opposition - that's alongside the fact that he found the net in their home win over Manchester United and grabbed the second goal in Switzerland's 3-3 draw with Denmark in midweek.
Another bet worth a small stake is on the midfielder to find the net from outside the area, with Sky Bet providing the best price at 16/1. The anytime scorer selection is at smaller priced odds but obviously covers goals from any situation. However, at 16s, this is a bet that should be considered too. 20 of Xhaka's 24 shots in the Premier League this season have come from outside the area and he's developed a reputation of delivering a 'Xhaka special' with the Arsenal fans. He is a player capable of striking from distance.
- Arsenal have won their last six home Premier League games against Newcastle United, scoring 18 goals and conceding just five.
- Newcastle have lost 11 of their last 12 Premier League matches against Arsenal, winning the other 2-1 at St. James’ Park last season.
- Only against Manchester United (28) have Newcastle lost more Premier League games than against Arsenal (27).
- Arsenal have won all six of their home league matches in 2019 and are one of only three of the 92 English league clubs yet to drop a home point this calendar year, along with Manchester City and Sheffield United.
- This will be Newcastle’s 15th consecutive Premier League game on a Monday away from home – of the previous 14, they’ve won two, drawn one and lost 11.
- Arsenal have won their last nine Premier League home games. They last won more consecutively at home within a single season back in 1997-98 (10).
- Newcastle have lost 17 of their last 23 away Premier League games in London (W3 D3) and are winless in their last six visits to the capital (W0 D2 L4).
- Arsenal’s Mesut Özil has had a hand in four goals in four Premier League games against Newcastle United (3 goals, 1 assist).
- Newcastle boss Rafael Benitez has taken just two points in his seven away Premier League games against Arsenal (P7 W0 D2 L5).
- Alexandre Lacazette has scored 73% of his Premier League goals for Arsenal in home games (19/26). Of the 42 players to have scored 10+ goals in the competition for the Gunners, only Tony Adams scored a higher ratio at home (83%).
Odds correct at 1545 GMT (29/03/19)