After a flurry of managerial sackings in November, December was quiet. Jake Osgathorpe digs into the Sack Race odds to find value in the market.
This column managed around five hours during the October international break, with Steve Bruce's odds being slashed after the announced takeover, before he was inevitably sacked.
After he, Nuno Espirito Santo, Daniel Farke, Dean Smith and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer were all dismissed within the space of a month, December was quiet on the sacking front.
The market has now re-formed, and with the season at the half way point, it does seem likely we will get at least one more dismissal in the top flight.
But who is the value to be the next manager to leave their post?
Rafa Benitez - Evs (odds via Sky Bet)
Everton languish in 15th, with their results and performances simply shocking since the October international break.
The Toffees have played 11 times since then, picking up just five points.
Over that time, only Newcastle (0.80) have picked up fewer expected points (xPoints) per game than Everton (0.92).
Only the Magpies (-1.16) have posted a worst expected goal process (xGD/game) than Rafa's side too (-0.96).
It really doesn't look great for the Merseysiders, with performances fully deserving of their poor results.
While all of that may make you agree with the bookies making Rafa the favourite to be the next manager leave, the fact that Everton seem to be backing their coach suggests they won't dismiss him easily.
Let's face it, Everton have been a club without stability for some time, and while results and performances have been relegation worthy, it would appear that the board are willing to side with Rafa for the long-haul, so we must look elsewhere for our value.
Claudio Ranieri - 11/8 (odds via Sky Bet)
Watford are renowned for their sack speed, so it is somewhat surprising that Claudio Ranieri is still in a job.
After all, the Hornets have lost nine of 11 since the Italian took charge, collecting just six points.
Brought in during the October international break, it is fair to say that Ranieri's appointment hasn't had the desired impact in terms of getting Watford pointing in the right direction.
They are just two points above the relegation zone having played a game more than third-bottom Burnley, failing to make any advances up the league due to their defence.
Only Everton have been worst defensively since Ranieri took over, with the Hornets allowing 2.08 xGA per game.
Now, the Italian does deserve some slack for the bad results and performances, as in his 11 games in charge Watford have faced all of the current top seven plus Leicester.
The concerning part then is that they have been second best in two of three games against bottom half sides Southampton and Brentford - besting only Everton.
We also have to consider the rumours coming from the Watford dressing room when assessing this market, with it being reported that the dressing room are extremely unhappy with the African Cup of Nations developments.
All of this, combined with the fact that their next two games see them face the bottom two, Newcastle and Norwich, means it could be a recipe for disaster for Ranieri.
In my opinion, he should be the favourite in this market ahead of Rafa, especially given the record of Watford's owners, so he is the value play at a best price 2/1 with Betfair.
No Manager to Leave - 20/1 (odds via Sky Bet)
Thomas Tuchel (10/1), who is next in the betting, won't be leaving Chelsea any time soon despite a disappointing run of results.
Leeds manager Marcelo Bielsa (11/1) is unlikely to be sacked any time soon either, with the Argentine loved by fans and players at Elland Road. Their weekend win over Burnley was a big one that eased pressure.
Newly-appointed Newcastle manager Eddie Howe (16/1) has a real job on his hands to keep his side in the league, but is expected to be given until the end of the season to do so.
Ralph Hasenhuttl (18/1) is unlikely to be sacked anytime soon given Southampton's distance to the relegation zone (10 points), though he could be poached by another club.
That brings us out to the 20/1 shots which feature Brendan Rodgers, Sean Dyche and No Manager to Leave.
The latter appeals as a small wager.
As discussed, the new signings at Everton suggest Rafa has the backing of the board at Goodison Park as they look for a period of stability.
The issue is Watford, but if they win their next two games against Newcastle (a) and Norwich (h) to put some daylight between themselves and the drop-zone then there could be a chance the Hornets board don't pull the trigger.
It seems like a decent alternative to backing Ranieri at a shorter price.
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