Newcastle's defensive development under Eddie Howe gives them options
At many points in the campaign, Newcastle's season could have been neatly defined by a single word — embarrassment.
The embarrassment of a 'sleeping giant' appearing set for relegation was usurped by an embarrassment of riches, which, ironically, comes with its own widely-discussed embarrassment.
Not unlike Eddie Howe, I'll simply "stick to football" as much as possible for the sake of this piece, but it's no wonder he only wants to answer questions on the game considering the strides Newcastle have made during his relatively short tenure.
Their improvement has been so drastic that, after sitting bottom of both the actual and Infogol's expected goals table shortly after his appointment, Newcastle are now forecast to finish in a comfortable 14th place.
Although Howe took over in early November, the opening of the transfer window was always going to be the critical juncture of their season, an opportunity to upgrade in almost every area given the investment made in the club.
Make no mistake, a strengthening was desperately needed.
Prior to January 1st, Newcastle averaged a -1.21 actual goal difference and a -1.01 expected goal difference (xGD) per game, allowing far more more chances than they created.
An obviously talented attacking unit was underperforming, scoring just 19 times from 20.2 xG in their 19 matches, perhaps constrained by what was possibly the worst defence in the league at the time. The Magpies conceded 42 goals from 39.4 xG during that period.
Since then, an advancement in Newcastle's ability to create chances for themselves has only been overshadowed by an impressive decline in the amount of scoring opportunities they surrender, leading to a positive crossover in their 10-game rolling xG averages this term.
In the 10 Premier League fixtures Newcastle have played since the turn of the year, they've yet to concede more than one goal in any match (seven in total) and have allowed an impressive average of 1.19 expected goals against (xGA) per game.
An average final forecasted position of 11.6 for their opponents in that time shows that it wasn't a result of a weak schedule, especially when taking into consideration the fact that six of those fixtures were played on the road.
Howe should be attributed a lot of credit for that, too, with important acquisitions in the winter window missing significant minutes recently, as well as welcoming previously unwanted/underappreciated talent such as Fabian Schär back into the fold.
Despite missing out on their main centre-back target — Lille's Sven Botman — Newcastle fared very well in regard to quality added from a defensive standpoint in an often tricky January transfer market.
Kieran Trippier and Matt Targett are shrewd signings that Howe has had to do without for multiple matches, making Newcastle's upswing far more than just a personnel-related matter.
Dan Burn, however, has been a mainstay in central defence, displaying his adaptability in playing in either a three-at-the-back or four-at-the-back system. Quickly becoming a hometown hero, Burn's presence has been instrumental.
Of course, defensive solidity should be thought of as a team achievement rather than simply one unit, so commendations should be handed out elsewhere, too.
Joelinton's move to a more suited deeper role has proved to be a masterstroke, his pressure (21.43 per 90 minutes), tackle (2.43 per 90), block (2.28 per 90) and aerial (3.71 won per 90) metrics illustrate the defensive work the Brazilian is getting through.
Meanwhile, Newcastle's marquee signing and sure-fire fan favourite, Bruno Guimarães, has been allowed to settle in nicely at the club — another player that would relieve stress on a defence with his ball retention and progression attributes.
Overall, the advancements that Newcastle have made on the defensive end in the short-term will, as a bi-product, have many positive impacts on the club's lofty long-term plans.
With a Premier League place all-but secure, useful evaluation can be made on the squad when it comes to top-tier talent. Their focus on immediate transfer targets could even shift to other areas given the underlying numbers at hand.
Spring has truly sprung for prospective sporting director, Dan Ashworth. Maybe a pair of magpies has visited his presumably well-kept patch during gardening leave.
Perhaps the most surprising development at Eddie Howe's Newcastle is the increased likelihood of clean sheets in these brighter days.
Then again, there's a lot of things on the line with this project.
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