Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Over 12.5 corners at 10/3 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
The news of Ruben Amorim's sacking by Manchester United on Monday morning reminded me of the "call an ambulance but not for me" video clip you may have seen on Twitter previously.
Daniel Farke was set to lose his job at the start of December. Leeds had lost six of their previous seven and yet, in January, he's guided the Whites to a seven-game unbeaten run.
The most recent result - a 1-1 draw with Manchester United - cost Amorim his job. Not only has he saved his own but his team's performances are now proving costly for others.
Runs must come to an end though and a trip to Newcastle should deliver just that. Leeds have gained results against some very good sides across this period but their opponents are a strong outfit in front of their own supporters.
They've won five of six home games against sides currently sat in the bottom half with the only time they didn't secure maximum returns in being the 2-2 draw with Spurs at the beginning of December.
Leeds have got themselves into a position where defeats are fine at this point, as much as you always want to see a return in some capacity. It is, obviously, unrealistic to expect them not to lose again this season.
The fixture list has actually worked out for them in giving a likely defeat a day after West Ham play Nottingham Forest, meaning at least one of those sides will drop points.
And for Newcastle, three points could dig a serious hole into the five-point gap between themselves and fourth.
They are an odds-on price though, meaning I am more interested in the 10/3 on OVER 12.5 CORNERS. That's a high line but it's obviously explained by the price.
Leeds have been playing their part in this area since a permanent tactical change to 3-5-2 at the beginning of this run. Farke's side have averaged 5.6 corners taken per game across their last seven having gone at 3.9 prior to it.
They've really tapped in to the physicality they bought in the summer transfer window. They're almost playing for corners and throw-ins within range of the opposition box.
No side has actually scored more from set-pieces heading into this gameweek than Leeds. Even as outsiders, it's a route to goal which they will look to exploit.
Regardless of the opposition, it's always a market I look to in Newcastle's home games. They see an average of 13.1 match corners per home game - the highest in the league by some distance.
They also take 7.4 of that average. The likely game state of the home side being ahead does open it up to Leeds trying to utilise set-pieces again.
And even if not, Newcastle could rack up the majority of the corners if Leeds look to frustrate and hit them on the counter.
Prices of 6/5 and above are available on the Over 10.5 line, but I'm happy to go for a few extra at eye-catching odds.
Odds correct at 13:45 GMT (05/01/26)
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