Newcastle welcome Bournemouth in the Premier League on Saturday afternoon. James Cantrill picks out his best bets, including a 28/1 punt.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Adam Smith to be shown a card at 11/4 (bet365)
1pt Ryan Fraser to be shown a card at 7/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Fraser and Smith to be carded at 28/1 (bet365)
The only 15:00 kick off in the Premier League this Saturday takes place in Tyneside and pits Newcastle against Bournemouth.
The hosts are heavy favourites for this one and with good reason. Their points tally of seven may not convince, but Eddie Howe’s side have impressed this season securing a draw against Champions Manchester City and narrowly losing to Liverpool.
Despite only scoring seven, the Magpies have generated an xG of 11.35 and an xGD of 1.56, metrics that indicate they should be in 7th not 11th.
In stark contrast, the Cherries should consider themselves very fortunate to be in 13th, Infogol has them rock bottom based on their underlying data from the opening six games.
They head to St James’ Park without a permanent manager and have conceded 18 in their last four games.
Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Newcastle 2/5 | Draw 7/2 | Bournemouth 13/2
Craig Pawson takes charge of this fixture. He has brandished 19 cards in four top flight games this season making him the third most card happy referee in the division.
He is overseeing a fixture consisting of the 5th and 6th dirtiest sides, in terms of fouls, in the league so the game looks set to have plenty of beef and hopefully some bookings.
The most likely candidate for a booking looks to be the visitors right back, Adam Smith. The defender already has four to his name this season, picking them up consecutively in his first four games back in the top flight.
Somehow, Smith has managed to avoid a 5th card, despite conceding three fouls as the Cherries hosted Wolves.
This angle does not hinge entirely on the following but should Allan Saint-Maximin recover in time from a hamstring strain, Smith could be in trouble.
The Frenchman looks like the complete package this campaign. He tops the leagues charts for dribbles completed per game (3.5) and has already registered two assists and a goal. He is terrorising his direct opponents drawing cards in everyone of his four league appearances.
Nelson Semedo was his latest victim. John Stones was booked for a cynical foul on ASM when Newcastle faced City - Stones first domestic yellow card in 63 league appearances - while Solly March was booked the week before that.
Both Neco Williams and Joe Worrall were carded when Forest faced Howe's side on opening day.
If ASM does start, I would not put anyone off backing Smith to be sent off at 33/1 either.
Assuming ASM is unfit to start, I think his understudy, RYAN FRASER, is also worth a punt in the card market.
In the Premier League, he has picked up 13 yellows and one red card in 158 appearances, a cards per 90 average of 0.11.
However, at his ex-club Bournemouth, he averaged just 0.07 cards per 90. Since joining Newcastle, he has averaged 0.24 cards per 90.
Therefore, if you were to base his price TO BE SHOWN A CARD on his average on the South coast, 14/1 would just about be large enough. Whereas if you were to base that price on his average on the East coast, 5/1 would be worth backing.
If the Scottish winger does get the nod here, I also think it might be worth combining him to be booked with Adam Smith.
The fact that Fraser spent eight years at Bournemouth during their rise from the third tier to the top flight provides an extra dimension to the selection as I am sure he will be keen to get one over his former employers.
Newcastle v Bournemouth best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Adam Smith to be shown a card at 11/4 (bet365)
- 1pt Ryan Fraser to be shown a card at 7/1 (bet365)
- 0.5pt Fraser and Smith to be carded at 28/1 (bet365)
Score prediction: Newcastle 3-0 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1310 BST (15/09/22)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
