Football betting tips: Nations League
1pt Kostas Tsimikas 1+ assists at 9/1 (bet365)
1pt Christos Tzolis 2+ shots on target at 7/2 (Sky Bet)
BuildABet @ 19/1
- Christos Tzolis 2+ shots on target
- Scott McTominay 1+ shots on target
- Grant Hanley to commit 2+ fouls
Scott McTominay's first-half penalty secured Scotland a first leg upset on Thursday, putting them in a good position to retain their spot in League A when they welcome Greece to Hampden Park.
It was a determined performance from Steve Clarke's side who were excellent in the first-half and survived an onslaught in the second.
Greece registered 18 shots after the break and yet only one of those forced Craig Gordon into a save. They did see a goal ruled out as the ball was clearly out of play alongside a penalty overturned by VAR with contact outside the box.
It very much felt like a case before the game that Scotland would aim to frustrate and take something back to Hampden. The second 45 certainly played out in that manner.
"The dirty side, the running, tackling, blocking, heading," was the praise from Clarke. They did the grafting side of the game well when needed.
They'll have the backing of a home crowd on Sunday, and while it may not be to the same extent, elements of that performance are likely to come to the fore again in stages.
What are the best bets?
Greece finished the first leg with 24 shots in total. From the 14 passes which led to one, KOSTAS TSIMIKAS was responsible for a match-high four.
The Liverpool left-back also holds set-piece duties for his country but he somehow went through the Nations League B campaign without creating a single chance.
A big chance for Greece at the end, but Scotland are winners in Athens.
— BBC Sport Scotland (@BBCSportScot) March 20, 2025
Scott McTominay's penalty sets up the second leg of the Nations League play-off on Sunday at Hampden.
🇬🇷 🏴 #BBCFootball pic.twitter.com/t1axQJB21F
Prices of 9/1 are available for 1+ ASSISTS which is certainly worth backing based on Tsimikas' Thursday night showing.
He does have a couple of assists on his tally for the Reds this season too despite not being a regular starter.
Another standout performer from a Greece perspective on Thursday was their winger CHRISTOS TZOLIS, with the 7/2 on him seeing 2+ SHOTS ON TARGET an eye-catching price.
No player saw more than his three shots in the first leg with one of those striking the post. He also converted before the goal was ruled out for the ball being well out of play.
Four of Tzolis' five Nations League group outings delivered at least two shots with five in the final away game in Finland - that was a game where he scored.
Team news
It's likely to be a similar Scotland line-up following success in the first leg.
Ryan Christie returns having served a suspension in that game but the likelihood is that he takes a spot on the bench.
For Greece, they may be more open to changes. One enforced change will be Manolis Siopis in midfield with his yellow card on Thursday meaning a suspension here.
In his place, Slavia Prague's Christos Zafeiris could come in after being a second-half substitute last time out.
Predicted line-ups
Scotland XI: Gordon; Ralston, Hanley, Souttar, Robertson; Gilmour, McLean; McGinn, McTominay, Ferguson; Adams.
Greece XI: Tzolakis; Rota, Mavropanos, Koulierakis, Tsimikas; Mantalos, Zafeiris; Masouras, Konstantelias, Tzolis; Pavlidis.
Match facts
- The only previous time Scotland have hosted Greece for an international match came in August 1995 in a UEFA European Championship qualifier, winning 1-0 at Hampden Park thanks to a goal from Ally McCoist.
- In the previous meeting between these two sides this week, Greece attempted 24 shots and finished the game with 2.7xG. Indeed, while failing to score on the night, this was their highest xG total in a UEFA Nations League match to date.
- Scotland have lost just two of their last 22 competitive internationals on home soil (W15 D5), losing to Ukraine in June 2022 and Poland in September 2024.
- Greece have won each of their last three away games, all in the UEFA Nations League. They haven’t won four away games in a row since October 2016, while in competitive internationals they last did so in September 2008.
- After a run of 10 competitive matches without managing a single victory between October 2023 and October 2024 (D4 L6), Scotland have won each of their last three such fixtures. If they win this game, they’ll already have as many competitive wins in 2025 (2) as they managed in 2024 (W2 D2 L5).
- Since the start of 2023, Scott McTominay has averaged a goal every other game for Scotland, netting 11 goals in 22 appearances. Indeed, McTominay has netted exactly a third of his team’s goals across all competitions in this period (33% - 11/33).
- Vangelis Pavlidis has only scored in one of his last 19 appearances for Greece, although that was the last time he played for his country on British soil, netting a brace against England at Wembley last October.
- John McGinn could make his 75th international appearance for Scotland in this game (currently on 74 caps), while he’d be just the sixth outfield player to reach this milestone (after Kenny Dalglish, Andy Robertson, Darren Fletcher, Alex McLeish, and Paul McStay).
Odds correct at 1445 GMT (21/03/25)
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