Football betting tips: Nations League
3.5pts Spain to reach the final at 8/5 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power)
1.5pts Portugal to reach the final at 10/3 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power)
1pt Portugal to win the Nations League at 9/1 (Paddy Power, Betfred)
Even for the most ardent international football advocate it's hard not to feel a little underwhelmed by a three-week window arriving just as the domestic season was getting into rhythm.
That lack of enthusiasm seems to have dripped into playing squads too with a spate of withdrawals adding to a growing sense of collective apathy.
It's a shame for many reasons, the main one being that on paper this is an exciting period of fixtures, with the Nations League a competition that has more than justified itself since UEFA launched it eight years ago.
There are lots of matches worth watching, with League A containing the 16 top-ranked UEFA members from the 2024–25 edition, split into the four groups below:
UEFA Nations League winner odds (via Sky Bet)
Each Way: 1/2 Odds, 2 Places
- France, Spain - 3/1
- Germany, England - 9/2
- Portugal - 17/2
- Netherlands - 12/1
- Norway, Belgium - 16/1
- Italy, Denmark - 33/1
- Croatia - 50/1
- Serbia, Türkiye - 100/1
- Greece - 150/1
- Czechia, Wales - 175/1
The only glaring absentee following relegation two years ago are World Cup quarter-finalists Switzerland, who must compete in League B alongside several others who took part in this summer's tournament in North America - Scotland, Austria, Bosnia and Sweden.
Here we'll just focus on League A, where lots has changed in a few short months.
Meet the new bosses
Eight of the 16 teams in the top flight have a new manager in place, with the most significant being Didier Deschamps' 14-year stint as France boss ending and Zinedine Zidane taking charge.
A chaotic, embarrassing summer saw Italy's FA publicly court Pep Guardiola then cave in to pressure over the appointment of Andrea Pirlo because of business links to Russia. Now, Euro 2020-winning coach Roberto Mancini is back.
For Belgium it's Rudi Garcia out, Mark van Bommel in.
Germany's round-of-32 exit at the hands of Paraguay saw Julian Nagelsmann sacked and Jurgen Klopp swiftly named his replacement, sparking excitement that their 12-year struggle since winning the 2014 World Cup could finally be over.
The Netherlands resisted their almost unshakable habit of switching between Ronald Koeman and Louis van Gaal by replacing the former with another legendary Barcelona midfielder in Xavi.
Slaven Bilic is back at Croatia after 14 years away, and 19 years since the infamous "Wally with the brolly" night at Wembley cost England a place at Euro 2008 and Steve McClaren his job as manager.
Czechia have made an interesting appointment, bringing in Luis de la Fuente's successor as Spain's under-21s coach Santi Denia, a former Atletico Madrid midfielder who won two caps for his country.
And finally, defending champions Portugal appointed veteran coach Jorge Jesus following the expiry of Roberto Martinez's three-and-a-half-year contract.
UEFA Nations League winners
2018-19: PORTUGAL 1-0 Netherlands
2020-21: FRANCE 2-1 Spain
2022-23: SPAIN 0-0 Croatia (5-4 pens)
2024-25 PORTUGAL 2-2 Spain (5-3 pens)
Who will win the Nations League?
Stating the obvious, it's hard to look beyond world and European champions SPAIN.
One of the few established nations with managerial continuity and having reached the final of every tournament they have entered under De la Fuente (two Nations Leagues, a Euros and a World Cup) winning three of them, they are tough to oppose.
France arguably have a more favourable group, which explains why many firms have placed them as joint-favourites.
But SPAIN are a considerably larger price TO REACH THE FINAL with the 8/5 offered by Sky Bet and Paddy Power a significant bump from France's 13/10.
Following the initial group stage, winners and runners-up are drawn against each other in a two-legged quarter-final. Should England or Croatia pip Spain to top spot in Group A3 then hypothetically they could have a more difficult path to the Nations League Finals - a mini tournament where one-legged semis and a final are played at a neutral venue.
For a team who are unbeaten in 38 matches that is hardly a concern. Spain have not lost a game since a 2024 friendly against Colombia with the only other blip a defeat on penalties in the final of this competition 15 or so months ago.
Portugal primed for another push
PORTUGAL are looking to win back-to-back Nations Leagues and a third in five.
They had an underwhelming World Cup under Roberto Martinez, with it of their own making that they met - and then lost to - Spain in the round of 16.
After two forgettable showings in major tournaments something new was required.
How a Portugal manager copes with the circus surrounding Cristiano Ronaldo's role has dominated Euros and World Cups, but taken a backseat during the less high-profile Nations League, which should give new man Jorge Jesus the same breathing space that allowed predecessors Martinez and Fernando Santos to LIFT THE TROPHY.
The 72-year-old is best known for a hugely successful period at Benfica more than a decade ago, winning three league titles and twice reaching the final of the Europa League. Since then he made history by becoming the first foreign manager to win the Copa Libertadores (the South American Champions League) with a Brazilian club, doing so with Flamengo in 2019.
Last term he led Ronaldo's club Al Nassr to the Saudi Pro League title, his second triumph in three seasons in the country having also won the division with Al Hilal in 2024.
His appointment feels particularly astute. Likely due to Ronaldo, Portugal have an unusually high number of players in Saudi Arabia, with Joao Felix, Ruben Neves and Trincao among them, and Joao Cancelo only recently returning from two years there.
But more importantly they simply have a world-class squad, underpinned by PSG trio Nuno Mendes, Joao Neves and Vitinha, and both Manchester clubs' captains in Bruno Fernandes and Ruben Dias.
At 9/1 TO WIN THE NATIONS LEAGUE they are worth a small bet given their history in the competition and the players at Jesus' disposal. It is a significant jump up in price from the next shortest in the betting, with England and Germany both a top price of 5/1.
The 10/3 about them TO REACH THE FINAL is of interest too, and better to be backed at top price rather than taking inferior each-way terms.
Odds correct at 12:00 BST (23/09/26)
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