Football betting tips: Champions League
2pts Over 2.5 goals at 4/5 (bet365)
1pt Scott McTominay to score anytime at 15/4 (Betway)
0.5pt McTominay to score a header at 16/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)
It's been a dismal Champions League campaign thus far for the reigning Serie A champions. Napoli, led by Antonio Conte, head into the final matchday of the League Phase sat in 25th spot, and know that realistically anything less than a win will see them eliminated from European competition.
They've managed just two victories in seven, and somehow didn't beat Copenhagen last week despite being a goal up and playing against 10-men for nearly 60 minutes.
Conte's men host his former side Chelsea, who start the final round of matches inside the top eight on goal difference, with just one goal separating them, Barcelona and Sporting Lisbon and fellow Premier League side Manchester City a further goal behind.
The incentive to finish in the top eight is safe progression through to the round of 16 and an avoidance of two extra games on the schedule, and realistically given the number of teams who can usurp the Blues, only a win will do.
This all means we should be in for an exciting ding-dong affair, with a dull draw no good for either. OVER 2.5 GOALS rates the best bet of the game for that reason, especially as both sides have to go for it from the off.
If one side goes in front, it will only embolden the other, while in Chelsea's case, they may have to win by a wide margin to secure a top eight spot should Barca (+5 GD), Sporting (+5 GD), City (+4 GD) or even Atletico (+3 GD) win by a two or three goals which wouldn't be a surprise.
All of the Blues' away games in this competition have gone over 2.5 goals, those matches averaging 3.67 goals, and they are yet to win, with their defensive issues a main reason to swerve them at the prices available.
If Napoli are to score, chances are high it will be SCOTT MCTOMINAY, and we'll back him TO SCORE ANYTIME at 15/4. The all-action Scot is his sides' joint-top scorer this season with nine in all competitions, and is Napoli's top scorer in the Champions League, firing four times in seven games including last week.
Interestingly, all of his goals in this competition have been headers from corners, which only makes me love this bet even more given Chelsea's issues defending dead-balls, and means we have to back MCTOMINAY TO SCORE A HEADER too at 16/1. Six of his nine goals in all competitions this season have come via his head.
The Blues have conceded 10 goals in the league from set-pieces but are yet to breached from them in the UCL, though that will change soon and could change here. Napoli have scored the second-most set-piece goals in the UCL, and racked up the fourth-most xG from corners and free-kicks.
McTominay of course provides an open-play goal threat too, and all in all he's averaging 0.32 xG per 90 across all competitions, making the price on offer here excellent value, before factoring in the likely high-scoring nature of this clash.
Odds correct at 20:45 GMT (27/01/26)
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