Euro 2020 qualifying preview: Free tips, predictions & best bets for Monday's action
The Euro 2020 qualifiers continue on Monday with Northern Ireland in action. Tom Carnduff picks out his best bets.
Recommended bets
1pt Eljif Elmas to score anytime in Latvia v North Macedonia at 7/2
2pts Over 13.5 corners in Northern Ireland v Germany at 27/10
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
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Latvia v North Macedonia
It's fair to say that this isn't the game that many people will go to first but there is value to be had with this Latvia side enduring a diabolical qualification campaign so far.
The home side have lost all five of their games, conceding a huge 19 goals and scoring just once. For comparison, Gibraltar have only conceded 12 with a game less.
It's why the hosts are 5/1 for victory. North Macedonia may only have five points on their tally, but their single victory came in a 3-1 success over Latvia in March.
An away win is one to consider for the accumulator given their relatively small price. A more appealing bet though is backing Eljif Elmas to find the net anytime in this one.
The 19-year-old made a €16m move to Napoli in the summer and while his game time in Serie A has been limited, he is a starting part of this Macedonia side.
A point of interest is how he is a central midfielder at club level, and while he can line up in the same position for his country, he started as a striker in the recent draw with Israel.
He also netted two goals in their win over Latvia, that time playing as a wide midfielder. If he is to line-up in a similar forward role here then the 7/2 on a goal anytime looks a great price.
Best bet: Eljif Elmas to score anytime at 7/2
Northern Ireland v Germany
With Northern Ireland celebrating the anniversary of David Healy's famous winner again England last week, they will be hoping for a similar memorable moment at they welcome Germany to Windsor Park.
The 2014 World Cup winners are experiencing mixed fortunes during their period of transition, winning their three games up until the defeat to the Netherlands on Friday.
It's now make or break time for the Green and White Army. They've won all four of their games but the remaining four are the home and away fixtures against both Germany and the Netherlands.
They did what they had to do in those fixtures against Belarus and Estonia though. They also boast a decent goal difference having only conceded two during those contests.
A victory for the Netherlands was the worst of the three outcomes for Northern Ireland on Friday. They now have to find at least one victory in these difficult games to have a realistic chance of progression to the finals.
Their best chance is the games at home and it's a best price of 11/4 on the double chance in their favour.
The one characteristic of this Northern Ireland team during their qualification campaign is a high number of corners.
They've taken at least six corners in each of their four games so far. You'd imagine that pattern would continue, particularly at home, although they would be on the losing side of this statistic.
Germany have taken at least eight corners in two of their games - those coming against 'weaker' opposition in Belarus and Estonia so should hit a similar target on Monday night.
Over 13.5 corners is available at 27/10, which looks a good price considering the contest.
Best bet: Over 13.5 corners at 27/10
Opta facts
- Northern Ireland have lost 11 of their 17 previous clashes with Germany in all competitions (P17 W2 D4 L11), including each of the last seven in a row by an aggregate score of 20-3.
- Germany have only ever suffered one defeat away from home against Northern Ireland (P8 W6 D1 L1), a 0-1 defeat in November 1982 thanks to an Ian Stewart goal at Windsor Park.
- This will be the second time Northern Ireland will host Germany under Michael O’Neil’s stewardship, with the last meeting ending in a 3-1 win for the Germans back in October 2017 – Sebastian Rudy, Sandro Wagner and Joshua Kimmich the scorers.
- Northern Ireland have won each of their last five international matches across all competitions; they’ve never won six in a row in the country’s footballing history.
- Germany’s 2-4 defeat to Netherlands was their first loss in seven matches in all competitions (W4 D2) – they last lost consecutive games in October 2018 (vs Netherlands and France).
- Having lost just two of Michael O’Neil’s first 14 competitive meetings at home (P14 W8 D4 L2), Northern Ireland have suffered four defeats in their last six such games (P6 W2 D0 L4), though they have won each their last two.
- No player in the current German squad has more caps (93) or more international goals (15) than Real Madrid midfielder Toni Kroos.
- Should Steven Davis (112) feature for Northern Ireland in this match against Germany, he will earn his 113th cap for his country – only one other player in the country’s history has ever made more appearances for the Green and White Army (Pat Jennings, 119).
Odds correct at 1415 BST (08/09/19)
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