Football betting tips: MNF
1pt Yoane Wissa to be carded at 5/1 (bet365)
1pt Tarik Muharemovic to be carded at 11/2 (bet365)
1pt Dominic Calvert-Lewin to be carded at 13/2 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt Wissa, Muharemovic and Calvert-Lewin to be carded at 170/1 (bet365)
Newcastle’s new manager Matthias Jaissle has quickly lifted the mood at St James’ Park after an unbeaten start to the campaign (W2 D2).
The comeback from 2-0 down in their last game against Bournemouth made up for the 2–2 draw against Liverpool, where they squandered a goal advantage, conceding the equaliser in the 99th minute.
The Magpies were outplayed in the first half against the Cherries, who should have put the game to bed, but Jaissle's side grew into the fixture.
The underlying data doesn’t bode so well with Newcastle ranking 16th for xG, 15th for xGA and 17th for xGD (-2.5).
So, regression could be expected in the next few weeks and it is hard to make a case for them at Elland Road at the prices available.
Leeds have a much better process from their opening three games (-0.1 xGD) against Brighton, Brentford and Nottingham Forest - three sides expected to be competing for a spot in the top half this season.
Daniel Farke’s side are just as fine margin as they were last season.
Under 2.5 goals has clicked in each of their three games, with two 1-1 draws in that time, picking up from last season where they drew 14 times (2nd most in league).
Cards look the best way in on Monday night.
Michael Sailsbury is the referee, he’s given 10 in his two games this season and has averaged over four per game across 59 Premier League appearances, giving five or more in seven of 13 last season.
Newcastle have picked up nine cards this campaign (2nd in league), rank third for fouls conceded (14.7) and joint-first for fouls won (15.3).
Leeds have only picked up four cards this season, but rank in the top half for fouls conceded (11.7) and top six for fouls won (13.7).
YOANE WISSA has two cautions to his name this season and a career cards per 90 average of 0.20 yet can be backed at 5/1 TO BE CARDED.
He’s averaging 1.7 fouls per game but gives as good as he gets, winning 3.7 fouls per game, which leads us into another big price.
TARIK MUHAREMOVIC can be backed at 11/2 TO BE CARDED. He’s yet to break his Premier League duck but was carded 10 times in two seasons at Sassuolo and has a career cards per 90 average of 0.17, making this price value.
Interestingly though, he plays on the left side of three centre backs. Wissa likes to hover into this space and two of Newcastle’s three oppositions left sided centre backs have picked up cards this term.
Those two players were playing in back fours, but four of the six full backs Newcastle have faced in the league have also been carded, picking up on the trend last term which saw left backs booked in 34% of the Magpies top flight fixtures.
Another player who looks a touch big for a card is DOMINIC CALVERT-LEWIN. He has two to his name this season, averaging 2.3 fouls a game, and has a career cards per 90 average of 0.17.
Naturally the CARD TREBLE is worth a go at 170/1.
Odds correct at 13:00 BST (11/09/26)
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