Football betting tips: EFL
EFL - 19:45 kick-offs
1pt Over 9.5 corners in Norwich vs Watford, Millwall vs Bristol City, Burton vs Wigan & Walsall vs Oldham at 9.88/1 (bet365)
1pt Over 2.5 goals in Norwich vs Watford, Peterborough vs Reading & MK Dons vs Notts County at 5.57/1 (Betfred)
1pt Ashley Fletcher to score anytime in Blackpool vs Rotherham at 2/1 (bet365)
Birmingham vs Southampton - 20:15
2pts Over 28.5 total match shots at 5/2 (bet365)
1pt Over 32.5 total match shots at 7/1 (bet365)
Over 9.5 corners accumulator
- Kick-off: Monday, 19:45 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports+
I opted for one of these in my Friday column and all came close - two games let the four down by finishing on eight but none were a mile away.
It was an interesting enough approach to tempt me back in on Monday night with a number of fixtures looking like they have the potential for corners.
Throughout this entire column, we have the benefit of referencing a recent fixture between two sides too - this list being the reverse of games played on December 6/9.
We'll start with the two games in the Championship. NORWICH were beaten 3-2 by WATFORD and we could well see another thriller given the showings of both.
That contest had the corner count hit 11 and the Hornets have seen double figures in three of the four outings since.
A big game in the race for the play-offs as MILLWALL host BRISTOL CITY. The visitors took eight when beaten 1-0 at the beginning of the month.
This has been a winning pick in half of Millwall's home games this season with it landing in 55% of City's on the road.
League One now and it's BURTON vs WIGAN. I referenced how frequently Wigan's games see the corner count go high and I fancy the same here given the uncertainty on the result in the odds.
Burton have seen this land in 62% of their league contests this season and Wigan sit third in the third tier for total match corners.
OLDHAM didn't deliver much in this area against Grimsby but their visit to WALSALL has potential. Both teams took four when facing each other a couple of weeks back.
Walsall are a side to target for corners in home games with over 9.5 returning in 55% of contests in front of their own supporters compared to just 27% on the road.
Over 2.5 goals accumulator
- Kick-off: Monday, 19:45 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports+
I'm going to use those recent games as a good guide for where to look when it comes to goals. All three of these fixtures saw three or more struck and form since then has suggested it could happen again.
NORWICH vs WATFORD was discussed above in terms of corners but goals have also been a regular feature for both sides.
The Canaries' 1-0 win over Charlton was actually their first clean sheet since a 2-0 victory over Blackburn at the end of August - the run stood at 18 where they'd conceded.
This pick has also been a winner in four of Watford's previous six.
PETERBOROUGH have managed a couple of 1-0ers in recent weeks but I fancy that to change as they host READING - it finished 2-1 when the sides last faced each other.
Luke Williams' teams are typically expected to see action at both ends and the Royals did create a significant four big chances in that previous meeting.
The final game of the trio takes us to League Two where it's MK DONS vs NOTTS COUNTY in a big game at the top. We had five goals a few weeks back.
That game offered so much in attack as the scoreline suggested. Notts had seven efforts on target to MK's six, with the Dons creating seven big chances.
Blackpool vs Rotherham
- Kick-off: Monday, 19:45 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
This wasn't a successful pick in Friday's column but I'm happy to go back in at the same price.
ASHLEY FLETCHER is 2/1 TO SCORE ANYTIME which is particularly appealing considering the Tangerines are fancied for victory in This Week's Acca.
Fletcher did register a shot on target in that win over Doncaster a couple of days ago but his form prior to that was exceptional - netting six goals across the seven previous league appearances.
You'd trust him to see opportunities anyway but his importance in front of goal is only made greater by Dale Taylor's injury.
We could look towards likely replacement Tom Bloxham who grabbed the only goal of that game but his price is only marginally higher - I'd rather stick with form over previous weeks.
The previously mentioned run also includes a goal in the 3-0 win over Rotherham a few weeks back.
A best price of 2/1 is available with the 17/10 and higher on offer across the board also fine value.
Birmingham vs Southampton
- Kick-off: Monday, 20:15 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Live odds, form and stats
Can I still make a 'Christmas cracker' type description for a game at this point in the festivities?
I'm not entirely sure but either way the Championship's late, late kick-off (20:15 on a Monday offfttt) has the potential to be worth the watch.
The Saints marched out with a 3-1 victory over Birmingham at the beginning of the month and the hosts' own struggling form should see them adopt the attacking approach we saw against Derby.
They were done by a lovely counter attacking goal, struck back with a scrappy equaliser and then hit the woodwork in added time. Frustrations are growing at St. Andrew's.
I'm going to delve into the total match shots market here and take OVER 28.5 at 5/2 and OVER 32.5 at 7s. A reminder these are just shots and they don't have to be on target.
The top line is that there were 40 in that recent encounter with Southampton seeing 18 to Birmingham's 22 - it's not as if it was one of the teams putting all the effort in.
The Saints are averaging 15.3 shots per game since Tonda Eckert took charge at the start of the month which is a slight increase from the Will Still era.
Birmingham sit second in the Championship for shots taken in home games this season (18.9 average) and a potential game state of them being behind as we've seen in recent weeks can help this selection.
This could easily become a game where both sides get dragged into it and an end-to-end nature benefits the shots market.
Odds correct at 12:05 GMT (28/12/25)
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