Croatia and Real Madrid midfielder Modric is 1/5 to win the award on Monday night, which will end the duopoly of Messi and Ronaldo who've been swapping awards over the last ten years.
Juventus striker Ronaldo and Barcelona forward Messi have both won the top prize, which has been awarded by France Football to the best male player every year since 1956, five times from 2008.
Brazilian playmaker Kaka was the last player other than Ronaldo and Messi to be victorious, in 2007 when starring for AC Milan.
However, Ronaldo and Messi look set to miss out this time around as they are 10/1 and 25/1 respectively to win the award again, with even France's World Cup winner Antoine Griezmann more favoured at 6/1 to be presented with the gong by David Ginola in Paris.
Modric to cap brilliant year with Ballon d'Or
Former Tottenham player Modric has enjoyed an impressive year for both club and country.
The 33-year-old played an integral role in Real winning a fourth Champions League title in five years and then skippered Croatia to their first World Cup final in Russia.
Croatia were beaten 4-2 by France in Moscow earlier this summer, but Modric reinforced his reputation as one of the best midfielders in the world during the tournament by winning the Golden Ball.
Modric was also named the FIFA Best Men's Player at an awards ceremony in London in September, beating off competition from Ronaldo and Liverpool forward Mohamed Salah.
As well as Ronaldo, Messi and Salah, France World Cup winners Kylian Mbappe, Antoine Griezmann and Raphael Varane plus Brazil skipper Neymar are among the 30-man Ballon d'Or shortlist that was released in October.
England striker Harry Kane and Wales forward Gareth Bale were the only British players included.
Paris St Germain forward Mbappe and Liverpool full-back Trent Alexander-Arnold are two of the 10 nominees for the first Kopa Trophy, which is handed to the best player under the age of 21.
England internationals Lucy Bronze and Fran Kirby, of Lyon and Chelsea respectively, are in the running to win the inaugural Women's Ballon d'Or.
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