Jake Pearson previews the Sky Bet League One clash between MK Dons and Sheffield Wednesday, picking out his best bet and score prediction.
Football betting tips: League One
1pt Under 1.5 MK Dons cards at 7/5 (Unibet)
MK Dons and Sheffield Wednesday meet in a crucial fixture in terms of the Sky Bet League One promotion race, the home side four points behind league leaders Wigan, but perhaps more importantly desperate to keep Rotherham at bay, while Darren Moore’s Owls currently reside inside the play-off places on goal difference.
The Dons are undoubtedly the in-form team coming into this match, having not tasted defeat in their past 15 league matches, though the Owls arrive here on their own unbeaten run stretching six matches.
The reverse fixture back in November finished 2-1 in favour of Wednesday, but it is a surprise to see the visitors priced up as the favourites.
Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
MK Dons 2/1 | Draw 11/5 | Sheff Wed 13/10
Even so, it is in the card markets that the most value is to be found, with UNDER 1.5 MK DONS CARDS standing out at a price of 7/5.
We can price this selection up in a very basic way – taking MK Dons’ average home yellows (1.19) and Sheffield Wednesday’s opponents’ average yellows when the Owls are on the road (1.7), and averaging those gives us an estimation that MK will pick up 1.45 cards in this match.
Distribute that and we get a 58% chance that the home side will see fewer than two cards.
There is more to compiling than using historical averages, but by adding a bit of context we can be encouraged that the price for this bet should be closer to our 58% than the 42% on offer with Unibet.
No team have picked up fewer yellow cards on home soil than the Dons this term, Liam Manning’s men receiving 25 cautions across their 21 matches at the Stadium MK.
They have picked up two bookings across their last five home games, and both of those came in a single match against Wigan.
It is clear to see that the Dons are far from an aggressive team, and siding with the hosts to keep their noses clean looks a good way to approach this fixture from a betting perspective.
MK Dons v Sheffield Wednesday best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Under 1.5 MK Dons Cards at 7/5 (Unibet)
Score prediction: MK Dons 1-1 Sheffield Wednesday (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1300 BST (14/04/22)
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