Millwall host Swansea in the early Championship match, and our tipster Joe Rindl is looking to continue his fine EFL form with a 10/3 fancy.
1pt Millwall to win to nil at 10/3 (General)
What on earth has happened to Swansea? The high-flying Swans won six of their first seven after the turn of the new year, gliding past their opponents at will.
But since an FA Cup loss to Manchester City in mid-February they’ve sunk, crashing to seven defeats including losses in each of their last four games.
It’s only because of their early season form that they remain not just in the hunt for the play-offs, but have an outside shot at automatic promotion.
Steve Cooper’s side sit fourth, a point behind Brentford and 10 behind second-placed Watford having played one game fewer.
But most Swansea fans will be looking over their shoulder rather than straight ahead. Five points back are seventh-place Bournemouth who seem destined for a place in the top six after a recent winning run which included a 3-0 victory over the Welsh side.
With Barnsley (5th) and Reading (6th) continuing to pick up wins, it could be the Swans who miss out on a Play-Off spot come May.
Of course Bournemouth could always stutter like their promotion rivals and slowly drop down the table. If that were to happen, Millwall are most likely to step up to chasers-in-chief.
Gary Rowett’s team are the Championship’s in-form side, picking up more points in the last five games than any other club in the division.
They’re built on a solid defensive platform with just one defeat from their last eight matches at home.
At The Den their previous two fixtures have ended in 1-0 victories against Middlesbrough and Rotherham respectively. I expect a low-scoring affair to play out again in the early kick off.
The reason for Swansea’s slump is pretty simple. Not only are they not scoring any goals, they’re also not creating any meaningful chances.
In their defeat to Preston in their previous outing, the Swans finished with no attempts on target.
They have also failed to set the world alight in any of their other three games on their four-match losing run, never once getting on the scoresheet, having also fired blanks in their previous two away games.
Right now, Swansea are in a crisis. I have no doubt they’ll eventually return to winning ways, but I don’t think that happens against a well-organised Millwall side.
The bookies read it differently however. Cooper’s side are slight favourites at 13/8 (General), while leading marksman Andre Ayew - who hasn’t netted in his last five starts - inexplicably has overly short odds of 2/1 to score anytime.
The stats point to a MILLWALL WIN TO NIL yet I’m shocked to see those odds offered at a tasty 10/3 (General).
You could play it safe and back Swansea to not score at 7/4 (General), giving you the option of a 0-0 draw - the same result the Lions picked up against top two Norwich and Watford earlier in 2021.
But considering Millwall have scored in nine of their past 11, combined with the intriguing price jump, a clean sheet and victory is where I’ll be putting my money.
Score prediction: Millwall 1-0 Swansea (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1630 BST (07/04/21)
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