Slow starters Middlesbrough look to kickstart their Championship campaign at home to surprise packages Rotherham on Saturday evening. Michael Beardmore provides his best bets including a 22/1 shout.
Football betting tips: Championship
1pt Isaiah Jones to be shown a card at 7/2 (Sky Bet)
1pt Richard Wood 1+ shots on target at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Richard Wood to score anytime at 22/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
If you had asked a sample of neutral football fans which of these sides would be ninth in the Sky Bet Championship and which would be 21st after nine games, virtually all would have answered wrong.
While perennial yo-yo side Rotherham have adapted surprisingly superbly to their latest promotion to the second tier, Middlesbrough – many people’s title tips this term – have had a bit of a shocker.
Boro seemed to have turned the corner after a slow start with successive home wins over Swansea and Sunderland but then fell 3-0 behind to Cardiff in midweek and lost 3-2 despite a fightback.
While Rotherham have begun admirably, all three of their wins have come at home against sides hardly expected to pull up trees – Reading, Birmingham and Blackpool. They have collected credible points at QPR and Preston but were humbled 3-0 at Sunderland in their most recent away game.
Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
Middlesbrough 3/5 | Draw 29/10 | Rotherham 19/4
Infogol’s Expected Goals (xG) metrics suggest Middlesbrough’s position is a false one – in the xPoints table they would be 18 places higher in third, while the Millers would drop from ninth to 15th.
All four of Boro’s defeats have been by a single goal and they should clearly be higher than they are but they are unbackable at 8/13 generally here given the teams’ respective starts.
Do I think a Boro win is the most likely outcome? Probably. But the prices offer no value. I considered the Millers double chance option at 7/5, but that walloping at Sunderland puts me off.
This is a game where the stats markets offer better value and I would advise punters to tip into the card markets – for two reasons, firstly that Boro top the Championship ill-discipline charts with 24 yellows and one red from nine games.
Secondly, Tim Robinson is in charge of this game – he brandished 145 cards in the second tier last season, more than any other referee, averaging around five per game. He’s dished out 23 cards in six games this term too.
Boro have already had 15 players enter the notebook this season but for me the standout option is ISAIAH JONES TO BE SHOWN A CARD at 7/2.
Chris Wilder’s side can be a bit gung-ho and the wing-back has been caught out defensively a few times this season, averaging a team-high 1.3 fouls per game, 2.3 tackles per game and has already collected four bookings.
I also cannot ignore the form of Rotherham centre-back Richard Wood with the prices on offer for him to trouble Boro’s porous defence – the hosts have conceded the second most in the division.
He has four goals to his name already this term and while all have come at home, it has to be worth a small play on WOOD TO SCORE ANYTIME at 22/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair given set-plays could well be the Millers’ chief threat.
Just as generous is the 9/2 on WOOD TO HAVE 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET – across his career, the defender has 44 attempts on target from 195 games, roughly one every 4.5 games. He’s in the mood and while he can’t keep scoring, it’s certainly worth backing him to keep trying.
Middlesbrough v Rotherham best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Isaiah Jones to be shown a card at 7/2 (Sky Bet)
- 1pt Richard Wood 1+ shots on target at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
- 0.5pt Richard Wood to score anytime at 22/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Score prediction: Middlesbrough 2-1 Rotherham (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct 1045 BST (16/09/22)
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