An out-of-form Bournemouth look to get their season back on track against Chris Wilder's Middlesbrough. Jake Pearson has previewed the match, picking out his best bet.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Both Teams to Score ‘NO’ at Evens (BetVictor)
It hasn’t taken long for Middlesbrough fans to take to Chris Wilder, the former Sheffield United manager improving the Riverside team defensively, as well as making them a much more attractive watch.
Wilder has lost just once since his appointment at the beginning of November, collecting eight points from a possible 15.
Boro come into this fixture unbeaten in their last three, but they will have a tough task on their hands against a Bournemouth side that represent something of a wounded beast at present.
Kick-off time: 12:30 GMT, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Middlesbrough 13/8 | Draw 9/4 | Bournemouth 17/10
Just a month ago, the Cherries were top of the Sky Bet Championship and eight points clear of third-placed West Brom.
Automatic promotion looked within reach for Scott Parker’s men, but a poor run of form has seen that gap reduced to three points, with Fulham usurping them at the head of proceedings.
Bournemouth are without a win in their last five matches and need a result to get their season back on track.
The good news for Parker is that his side have the best away record in the Championship this season, losing just once on the road.
They are by no means the most prolific scorers away from the Vitality – their return of 14 just the sixth-highest in the league – but defensively they have been miserly, conceding a league-low of six away goals. They also rank as the second-best defensive outfit on the road in terms of expected goals against (xGA).
The biggest issue they will likely face then, is not perhaps keeping Middlesbrough at bay, something that six separate sides have achieved already this season, but more likely in breaking down the team ranked as the best defence in the Championship as per expected goals.
Boro have conceded chances equating to just 0.92 xGA per game this season, and at home that figure decreases to 0.83 xGA per match.
Wilder’s side rarely give up chances, particularly at the Riverside, and though the actual amount of goals they have conceded is higher than expected, we can expect that number to regress to the mean.
Siding against goals is the shrewd avenue into this fixture.
No team have kept more than the ten clean sheets Bournemouth have this term, seven of which have come away from home, while Boro have shut out the opposition in 40% of Wilder’s matches in charge.
Bournemouth away matches have averaged just 1.82 goals per game this term – only Derby’s away games have averaged lower – and given BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE ‘NO’ has also landed in seven of Bournemouth’s away matches this season, a price of even money for it to do so again is worth getting on side.
Middlesbrough v Bournemouth best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Both Teams to Score ‘NO’ at Evens (BetVictor)
Score prediction: Middlesbrough 0-0 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Odds correct at 1600 GMT (15/12/21)
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