Football betting tips: Non-league and EFL
League Two - Shrewsbury vs Cheltenham
1pt Isaac Hutchinson to score anytime at 4/1 (bet365)
0.25pt Isaac Hutchinson to score 2+ goals at 40/1 (bet365)
National League - Aldershot vs York
2pts York to win and Over 1.5 goals at 10/11 (bet365)
National League - Halifax vs Boreham Wood
1.5pts BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals at 10/11 (bet365)
National League North - Curzon Ashton vs Macclesfield
1.5pts Macclesfield to win and Both Teams To Score at 13/5 (bet365, William Hill)
National League South - Potters Bar vs Welling
1.5pts Over 2.5 Goals at 3/4 (General)
Multiples
1.5pts Over 2.5 Goals in Hashtag vs Brentwood, Spalding vs Halesowen & Walton & Hersham vs Farnham at 13/5 (bet365)
*All kick off 15:00
I’m back again – lucky you. I don’t know if it’s the distraction of Cheltenham races, the constant boring football on display across the country or I’m drained and want the season to end, but I really struggled with this week’s article.
The slate looks boring in comparison to midweek but a few bets do stand out. Without further ado..
Shrewsbury vs Cheltenham
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
If it isn’t broken, don’t fix it. I tipped up Isaac Hutchinson to score in the last article and he duly obliged, scoring a late penalty to salvage a point for his side. This made it six goals in seven starts since returning to the Robins on loan in January. The 25-year-old is averaging 0.48 goals, 3.30 shots and 1.07 shots on target per 90 in League Two this campaign.
Shrewsbury have seen an upturn under Gavin Cowan, winning six from nine, but defensive frailties remain. They’ve kept just three clean sheets in their last 11, with their opponents in those shutouts combining for 3.36 xG, and goalkeeper Matthew Cox sweeping the man of the match award in all three.
At the 4/1 quoted with bet365, HUTCHINSON looks too big once again TO SCORE ANYTIME. We'll also have a nibble on THE BRACE.
Aldershot vs York
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
YORK stood out when looking at the slate and, after a conversation with Jake about this bet, it became a no-brainer.
The Minstermen are involved in one of the most engrossing title races the National League has ever seen, going blow for blow with Rochdale on a weekly basis. Dale appear to have the upper hand, sitting two points clear on 88 with a game in hand, but York are a force to be reckoned with. If all goes to plan, the pair will fight it out on the final day at Spotland to secure promotion to League Two.
Stuart Maynard’s side have been ridiculous. They’ve scored 97 goals in 37 games and accumulated 86 points, yet it still might not be enough to win the league. York have won 10 of their last 11, scoring 2+ in every game bar the 1-0 win at Morecambe, a match in which they accumulated over 3.0 xG and missed a penalty. The only defeat in this run came away at a strong Boreham Wood side (3-2) - a game in which Josh Stones was sent off on the hour mark with the score at 1-1.
A seven-game unbeaten run that saw Aldershot win six matches moved them nine points clear of relegation. However, they have since lost three on the bounce, falling to promotion-chasing sides Rochdale (0-2), Forest Green (2-1) and Carlisle (0-2).
John Coleman’s side have struggled against the bigger teams, losing 5-1 at York in November, while Rochdale, Forest Green and Carlisle have all done the double over them. With not much to play for between now and the end of the season, full focus may already be on next week’s clash with bitter rivals Woking, so backing YORK WIN AND OVER 1.5 GOALS appeals.
Halifax vs Boreham Wood
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
I tipped two Boreham Wood angles in midweek and things were looking good after Matt Rush scored 21 minutes into the game. Marley Marshall then inexplicably got sent off nine minutes later, putting both bets in jeopardy.
However, goals in the 56th and 81st minutes for the hosts saw the BTTS and overs land before Rush secured his brace in the 96th minute to win us both bets. I won’t bore you with the spiel from the last article about Boreham Wood’s change in style and attacking prowess, but it is certainly reaping its rewards.
Only York have scored more than Boreham Wood’s 75, with their games averaging 3.35 goals. No side has seen over 2.5 goals click more often than Boreham Wood on the road (14/18), so goals are usually a given.
They face a Halifax side who leapfrogged Southend into the final playoff spot with a gritty 1-0 win at Hartlepool - a game in which the hosts accumulated 1.98 xG. However, with Southend just one point behind and holding three games in hand, the Shaymen need to put a run together if they are to fend off Kevin Maher’s side.
With 56 goals scored and 53 conceded, Halifax games are averaging just shy of three goals, with 12/18 (67%) at home seeing over 2.5 goals. BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE AND OVER 2.5 GOALS is the way in here.
Curzon Ashton vs Macclesfield
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
Now in their 11th straight season in the National League North, Curzon Ashton have made steady progress, finishing seventh and eighth in the last two campaigns. In the summer, Craig Mahon was poached by AFC Fylde and Mark Bradshaw has steadied the ship in what has been a transition season.
The Nash sit 15th, ten points off the playoffs and 11 clear of relegation, so they can start preparing for a 12th season at Step Two of non-league - perhaps with a bit more freedom. Their games have averaged 3.4 goals and only Peterborough Sports have conceded more than them.
At Tameside Stadium, Curzon have scored 28 and conceded 35, with 15 of their 19 home games seeing at least three goals.
MACCLESFIELD have seen both teams score in 12 of their 15 away games - the highest total in the league - only failing to score at Spennymoor in August and Chester in December. The Silkmen have also seen over 2.5 goals land in their last 13 league games, scoring 36 goals, conceding 21 and winning nine matches in the process. Of those nine wins, seven saw BTTS, with only King’s Lynn and Oxford City failing to score, so an AWAY WIN AND BTTS is worth a swing.
Potters Bar vs Welling
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
This is the definition of a six-pointer. Potters Bar sit second from bottom, six points from safety, one place and two points behind Saturday’s visitors. Both teams will be desperate for three points, so expect an end-to-end thriller (of sorts).
Potters Bar have the worst defensive record in the league, conceding 72 in 33, while Welling have shipped 64 in the same number of games. Both also average more than a goal per game, so action at both ends is expected.
The hosts have seen OVER 2.5 GOALS in 10 of their last 12 and 25 of their 33 games overall - the highest total in the league - as well as 13 of 17 at home.
No side has seen more games go over 2.5 on the road than Welling (15/17). With so much turnover in the squad, The Wings’ games normally descend into chaos.
Over 2.5 Goals treble
- Hashtag vs Brentwood - Isthmian League Premier
- Walton & Hersham vs Farnham - Southern League Premier South
- Spalding vs Halesowen - Southern League Premier Central
I always tend to pick three or so games that stand out for goals and treble them, so this week we have a bet from three of the four divisions at Step 3.
Hashtag come into this in dire form, having lost six of their last seven league games. That run has dragged them to just one point clear of the drop, making this very much a must-win fixture. Unsurprisingly, chaos has followed, with six of those seven defeats also seeing over 2.5 goals.
Goals have been a constant at Len Salmon Stadium all season. A league-high 14 of Hashtag’s 17 home games have gone over 2.5 goals, averaging a hefty 3.8 goals per game. Defensive fragility, combined with the need to chase points, means their matches are rarely dull.
Brentwood’s away numbers only add fuel to the fire. Their road games are averaging 3.94 goals, with 13 of 17 seeing over 2.5 goals. Keith Rowland’s side look well placed for a playoff push, but with a rampant Dartford and Burgess Hill breathing down their necks, they’ll want to bank a few more wins to feel comfortable.
That urgency is heightened by what’s to come, with their next three fixtures against Folkestone (1st), Chatham (4th) and an away trip to Burgess Hill (7th). All signs point towards another open, high-scoring affair.
Walton & Hersham vs Farnham is the game of the weekend. The Swans have largely coasted at the top of the league and four straight wins - scoring 16 goals and conceding just four -have given them a bit more breathing room.
Farnham arrive in frightening form, having won seven on the bounce, scoring 22 goals and conceding seven in the process. If the visitors were to win here, they’d move to within nine points of the summit with two games in hand, firmly applying pressure at the top.
Walton & Hersham’s games are averaging 3.38 goals, while Farnham’s fixtures average an even higher 3.83. The visitors have seen over 2.5 goals in 11 of their 14 away games, and with the league’s top two scorers going head-to-head, this has all the makings of a frantic, end-to-end contest.
Spalding and Harborough have also been in a dramatic title fight, and with The Bees now two points clear with two games in hand, Spalding realistically need to win the remaining games to stand at chance.
At home, their games are averaging 3.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals landing in a league high 15/17 at home and 27/34 in total. With 87 goals scored in 34, Jimmy Deans are by far the highest scorers in the league.
Halesowen are just one point off the playoffs but have Needham Market, Banbury and Worcester breathing down their necks, so the pressure is on. The Yeltz’ games are averaging 3.5 goals, with 22/33 league games seeing 3+ goals, including the 2-2 draw in the reverse.
Odds correct at 16:00 GMT (12/3/26)
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