Mark O'Haire is +21pts in profit in his column this season. Be sure to check out his best bets from across this weekend's action.
- Mark O'Haire column 21/22: +21.8pts profit | 15% return on investment
- Mark O'Haire column 22/23: +21.0 pts profit | 27% return on investment
Football betting tips: Mark O'Haire
2.5pts Ademola Lookman to score at anytime in Atalanta v Sampdoria at 7/4 (bet365)
2.5pts Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals in Bayer Leverkusen v Borussia Dortmund at 4/5 (bet365)
Bayer Leverkusen v Borussia Dortmund
- Kick-off time: 16:30 GMT, Sunday
- Leverkusen 7/5 | Draw 13/5 | Dortmund 17/10
Sunday afternoon’s Bundesliga highlight sees resurgent Bayer Leverkusen entertain Borussia Dortmund in what’s expected to be a mouthwatering match-up with goals aplenty. And the opportunity to support BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE AND OVER 2.5 GOALS is difficult to dismiss at 4/5 (1.80) quotes with bet365.
Fixtures between the pair tend to be explosive affairs. The North Rhine-Westphalia pair did play out a dull opening day encounter this season, yet their most recent 12 meetings have produced an enormous goals per-game average of 4.83 with 10 of those ties breaking the Over 2.5 barrier, nine featuring four goals or more and BTTS obliging on nine occasions.
After a rotten start to the season, Bayer are beginning to move through the gears. Xabi Alonso’s overseen five successive league victories either side of the World Cup break and Die Werkself now have fit-again orchestrator Florian Wirtz back in business after a serious knee injury. In 2023 they’ve secured a thrilling 3-2 win at Gladbach before beating Bochum.
Leverkusen should fancy their chances against a Dortmund side that continues to display fragility at the back. BVB were pushed all the way by lowly Augsburg on their return, pinching a 4-3 home success before requiring a stoppage-time Gio Reyna strike to secure a 2-1 triumph at Mainz in midweek. The visitors have shipped 17 goals in nine away days.
Considering the gung-ho nature of the teams on show, plus the fact seven of Leverkusen’s nine showdowns against top-10 opposition have covered the Over 2.5 Goals line, as have eight of Dortmund’s 11 encounters with teams outside the bottom-six, another high-scoring shootout could well be in the offing and I’m keen to support a goal-laden game.
Atalanta v Sampdoria
- Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Saturday
- Atalanta 1/3 | Draw 4/1 | Sampdoria 8/1
Atalanta have scored 15 goals in four unbeaten Serie A games since the World Cup break. The Bergamo-based club are impressively retooling with Gian Piero Gasperini in the process of regenerating another La Dea side that’s capable of challenging for a top-four finish.
Gasperini’s group have struck at least twice in all four of the aforementioned matches, annihilating Salernitana 8-2 before playing out a thrilling 3-3 draw with Juventus in their most recent two tussles. Atalanta now have the opportunity to extend their impressive recent run when beleaguered Sampdoria arrive at the Gewiss Stadium.
Samp are already eight points from safety having lost 14 of their 19 league dates, scoring just eight goals and firing blanks on 12 occasions. The guests have lost three on the spin without scoring and the despondent mood around the club makes them vulnerable visitors.
The Anytime Goalscorer market makes particular appeal here as there’s a few surprises with old stagers Luis Muriel and Duvan Zapata both dominating the top end of the market despite neither being a guaranteed starter in Gasperini’s latest evolution.
Instead, we should focus on former Charlton youth ADEMOLA LOOKMAN TO SCORE ANYTIME at 7/4 (2.75).
He’s comfortably clear as Atalanta’s top goalscorer with 11 strikes - Zapata and Muriel have managed just a goal apiece in the league thus far – and Lookman arrives in razor-sharp form having netted in eight of his last 10 league starts and notching every 99.3 minutes.
The market has Atalanta in to score around 2.25 goals in this game. Over the course of the campaign, Lookman’s 11 strikes account for about 30% of Atalanta’s overall 37-goal tally – 30% of the anticipated 2.25 goal total would give us around a 0.67 goal expectancy for the Nigerian international in this particular match, already highlighting real value.
And the price becomes even more tempting when viewing Lookman’s actual Expected Goals (xG) output. The flying forward is boasting a 0.58 xG average per-90 minutes, which tied in alongside his actual minutes per-goal figures, make this a terrific price to get behind as the 7/4 (2.75) odds imply Lookman has just a 36% chance of getting on the scoresheet.
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