Mark O'Haire's football betting tips, best bets and nap: Goals all around
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Football betting tips: Weekend
3pts Spurs vs Luton - BTTS and both teams 10+ booking points at 6/4 (Sky Bet)
2.5pts Barnsley & Peterborough both to score 2+ goals at 6/5 (Sky Bet)
2.5pts Barrow to beat Grimsby at evens (Sky Bet)
- The above are enhanced prices with a £25 max stake
Tottenham vs Luton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 17/20 | Draw 11/4 | Away 29/10
Tottenham were blanked for the first time in the Premier League under Ange Postecoglou during their no-show 3-0 defeat at Fulham before the international break. The market is expecting a strong bounce back from Spurs in Saturday’s match-up against relegation scrappers Luton, though I prefer to focus on a goals and cards combination at a nice price.
Tottenham have notched in 27 of 28 league dates, yet the Champions League chasers have managed to keep their sheets clean on only six occasions. Across their past 19 top-flight encounters, Spurs have seen 16 pay-out for both teams to score backers, as have 12 of their 14 Tottenham Hotspur Stadium showdowns this season.
Luton have hit the scoresheet in 25 of 29 EPL dates, failing to score only once since October’s international break. The Hatters have scored in four of five trips to the top-half, though Rob Edwards’ outfit have also recorded a paltry two shutouts since promotion. Town therefore boast the highest BTTS hit-rate in the division with 23/29 providing profit.
Now we can back BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE AND BOTH TEAMS 10+ BOOKING POINTS at a standout price, giving us a big leap on the standard BTTS price (around 4/6). Spurs have been booked in 89% of league games (averaging 2.54 cards), whilst Luton have collected a caution in 86% of outings (averaging 1.90 cards per-game). Meanwhile, referee Jarred Gillett averages 4.71 cards.
Barnsley vs Cambridge & Peterborough vs Carlisle
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Friday
Barnsley should be capable of getting their Sky Bet League One promotion push back on track when welcoming Cambridge on Good Friday. The Tykes have struck at least twice in 11 of their 20 Oakwell encounters this term (averaging 1.75 goals per-game) and the Reds should expect to enhance those numbers against a visiting side that’s nosediving towards relegation.
Cambridge are W1-D1-L8 in their last 10 with newly-appointed Garry Monk overseeing a 4-0 thrashing at Reading and 6-0 spanking at Lincoln in his opening two outings in charge. The U’s are W0-D1-L9 at top-half teams and have conceded multiple goals in eight of those road trips – we can back BARNSLEY TO SCORE 2+ GOALS as the first leg of a League One double.
Meanwhile, PETERBOROUGH can also be backed TO SCORE 2+ GOALS when welcoming rock-bottom Carlisle to London Road. Free-scoring Posh have overcome that goals hurdle in 15 of 19 home fixtures thus far (averaging 2.32 home goals per-game) – cut-adrift Carlisle are W2-D1-L13 since Boxing Day, leaking multiple goals in 12 of those 16 league matches.
Barrow vs Grimsby
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Friday
- Home 17/20 | Draw 11/4 | Away 29/10
Barrow are punching well beyond their budgetary restrictions to remain in the League Two promotion picture following a five-game unbeaten streak (W3-D2-L0) that’s kept the Bluebirds nestled inside the top-seven. The Cumbrian side have proven particularly effective at their Holker Steet home, returning W9-D5-L1 when welcoming teams below them.
My ratings rank Barrow third on home expected points (xP) and expected goals (xG) ratio, with the Bluebirds posting W4-D1-L0 in their most recent five Holker Street fixtures, silencing four sides in that same sample. Pete Wild’s posse are super strong to usurp here and boast the best home defence in the division by a distance, shipping only 13 goals in 19 outings.
I’m therefore happy to support a BARROW WIN at when Grimsby arrive on Good Friday. The Mariners sit only six points above the dreaded drop-zone having won once away from home all season. The visitors have taken a solitary point away from the top-six thus far, and I’ve Grimsby ranked inside the bottom-half across almost all major away metrics.
Odds correct at 1010 GMT (28/03/23)
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