Mark O'Haire's column is firmly in the green as we head down the home stretch of the season. Check out his selections for this weekend's action.
Mark O'Haire (@MarkOHaire) is a renowned football betting analyst and tipster, who boasts an excellent P+L
2.5pts Monza to win Draw No Bet v Lecce at 6/7 (10BET)
2.5pts Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals in Leeds v Tottenham at 4/5 (10BET)
Goals could be on the agenda at Elland Road on Sunday as the Premier League campaign reaches its conclusion. Leeds know only a win will keep their slim survival hopes alive with the Whites also reliant on results elsewhere; yet a home clash with out-of-form Tottenham should give Sam Allardyce’s outfit hope of holding up their side of the bargain.
Spurs have succeeded once in their past eight away days dating back to January, shipping multiple goals in six of those contests. Across all venues, Ryan Mason’s men have managed one clean sheet in 12, fallen to five defeats in seven, and pocketed only two triumphs in 10, one of which was deeply undeserved against Brighton.
However, Leeds have tabled only seven league victories all season, and arrive having taken just two points from a possible 24 (W0-D2-L6), a sample that includes losses by 2-1, 3-1, 4-1, 5-1 and 6-1 scorelines. I’m therefore quite happy to bypass both sides here and instead invest are focus on a goal-heavy game.
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE AND OVER 2.5 GOALS is available at 4/5. Eleven of Leeds’ last 12 tussles have produced Over 2.5 Goals with eight of those encounters featuring four goals or more.
Incredibly, all 12 matches paid out for Both Teams To Score backers, whilst 44% of their overall Elland Road showdowns saw Over 3.5 Goals land.
Tottenham have scored in all bar four of their EPL dates thus far, and arrive in West Yorkshire with nine of their previous 11 crossing the Over 2.5 Goals barrier. Seven of those 11 contests beat the Over 3.5 Goals threshold with 10 also banking for BTTS hunters. A huge 56% of Spurs’ away days produced a minimum of four strikes.
Considering the state of play, plus the natural increase in goals output on the final day of the season, I’m happy to support an end-of-season shootout at Elland Road.
MONZA have enjoyed a memorable debut season in Serie A and the Biancorossi look well worth siding with in the DRAW NO BET market at 6/7 on Sunday when they welcome relegation-threatened Lecce to the Stadio Brianteo.
Despite losing their first five fixtures at this level, Monza have rapidly recovered to consolidate comfortably in the top-half of the table. Over the last 31 fixtures, Raffaele Palladino’s posse rank sixth for points earned – Milan have picked up a solitary point more, whilst Monza have actually performed better than the likes of Roma in that same sample.
Only Napoli have lost fewer games over that 31-game segment with Monza suffering just seven defeats. More recently, the newcomers have been beaten once in 12, with the Biancorossi toppling the likes of Napoli and Fiorentina at their Stadio Brianteo base, as well as holding Roma here recently.
Last weekend, Palladino’s outfit triumphed at Sassuolo to make it five wins from seven unbeaten outings and the hosts are finishing the campaign in fine form. Yet the market is happy to dismiss and disrespect Monza here based on the opposing motivation factors which are artificially shortening the price on a Lecce success.
In contrast to Monza, Lecce made a bright start to the season following promotion but soon began to disintegrate through the winter and the visitors now sit only three points above the relegation zone. However, the visitors’ desperation and motivation for points has been grossly overestimated in the market.
Odds correct at 0925 (25/05/23)
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