Mark O'Haire, who landed a clean sweep of winners across his column and Members Extra last weekend, returns with his latest weekend best bets.
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- Mark O'Haire column 21/22: +21.8pts profit | 15% return on investment
- Mark O'Haire column 22/23: +8.8pts profit | 35.2% return on investment
Football betting tips: Mark O'Haire
2.5pts Barcelona (-1 handicap) to beat Cadiz at 8/11 (Betfair/Paddy Power)
2.5pts Over 2.5 goals in Angers v Montpellier at 17/20 (Unibet)
Angers v Montpellier
- Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
- Home 6/4 | Draw 12/5 | Away 7/4
Ligue 1 has been fantastic fun during the first six matchdays of 2022/23. France’s top-flight is averaging 3.30 goals, making it the highest-scoring major league in Europe, with a chunky 62% of fixtures featuring Over 2.5 Goals and a massive 70% seeing both sides score; two of the chief protagonists now face-off.
These teams have collectively delivered Over 2.5 Goals in 10 of their combined 12 matches thus far, with Over 3.5 returning profit on nine occasions. Five of those fixtures have featured five goals or more, while both sides have obliged in eight of those 12 dates. BTTS has clicked in 10 of those, with 4.25 goals per-game on average.
With four teams suffering relegation this season, Angers were always expected to struggle. Le SCO lost key players through the summer and have been unable to bring in quality replacements.
Unsurprisingly, Gerald Baticle’s boys have found the going tough, conceding 17 goals, although the hosts have only twice failed to get on the scoresheet themselves.
Meanwhile, Montpellier continue to own the ‘great entertainers’ tag in France. Olivier Dall'Oglio’s outfit have impressed in forward areas with exciting teenage forward Elye Wahi, left-sided Faitout Maouassa and new signing Wahbi Khazri making an immediate impact.
MHSC also see key playmaker Teji Savanier return from suspension for this showdown.
La Paillade’s top-heavy team have struck twice or more in four of their first six Ligue 1 dates, although defence continues to concern, particularly on their travels under Dall'Oglio’s stewardship; the visitors have silenced only five of their 21 hosts since the start of last season.
Even more encouragingly, those matches averaged a bulbous 3.38 goals.
There’s therefore plenty of evidence to suggest OVER 2.5 GOALS has a stronger chance of landing than the 17/20 (1.85) market price from Unibet implies.
Cadiz v Barcelona
- Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
- Home 12/1 | Draw 5/1 | Away 2/9
Barcelona began their new era with an underwhelming goalless draw against Rayo Vallecano, but the Catalans have been almost flawless since.
The Blaugrana have bagged four successive victories across La Liga and the Champions League by an aggregate 16-2, with mega signing Robert Lewandowski grabbing eight goals in that four-game streak.
With a trip to Bayern Munich in the week, there’s a chance Xavi rests and rotates his squad for Saturday’s trip to struggling Cadiz, yet Barcelona’s squad is so stacked this season that there’s unlikely to be a major downgrade in on-field quality; the likes of Gavi, Raphina and Ferran Torres are all fresh and raring to go having been benched on Wednesday.
So I’m anticipating another strong performance. Barca eviscerated Real Sociedad and Sevilla on the road – two of the traditionally toughest away days in Spain – and I’ll back the Blaugrana to repeat the feat here with BARCELONA -1 HANDICAP more than fair at 8/11 (1.73) with Betfair/Paddy Power.
Barcelona generated 5.48 expected goals (xG) in those aforementioned trips to San Sebastian and Sevilla, winning 4-1 and 3-0 respectively.
Now they’re facing Cadiz, who sit rock-bottom (W0-D0-L4), having lost three of their first four games by a margin of two-goals or more. The hosts have also averaged just 0.32 xG across their opening exchanges.
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