Mark O'Haire: Weekend football best bets and nap for September 25
Renowned football tipster Mark O'Haire returns with his nap, next best bet and longshot for this weekend's action.
Football betting tips: Premier League
3pts Under 2.5 Goals in Chelsea v Manchester City at 5/6 (Nap) (Mansion Bet)
1.5pts Both Teams to Score in Watford v Newcastle at 10/11 (Mansion Bet)
0.5pt Kurt Zouma to score a header in Leeds vs West Ham at 9/1 (SkyBet)
Chelsea vs Manchester City
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- TV channel: BT Sport
- Chelsea 13/8 | Draw 9/4 | Man City 17/10
It’s early days in the Premier League title race but Saturday’s curtain-raising showdown between Champions League winners Chelsea and defending domestic champions Manchester City is a mouthwatering prospect for punters at Stamford Bridge.
The Blues have an opportunity to move six points clear of City with victory, whilst the Citizens will be desperate to avoid dropping points for the third occasion in their opening six league encounters, with a trip to Liverpool still to come next Sunday.
With so much at stake, and the contest taking place so early in the season, the two teams will undoubtedly be aware of the consequences of a defeat and therefore a 'must-not-lose' attitude could be employed from both camps, making the draw a major runner.
The market cannot split the pair and the duo have already played out three tight and tactical match-ups during Thomas Tuchel’s reign with Chelsea. A repeat looks likely to be on the cards in the capital and I’m happy to make the case for a low-scoring showdown on Saturday with UNDER 2.5 GOALS trading at a best price of 5/6.
The Unders has clicked in 15 of Chelsea’s 17 matches against 'Big Six' or Champions League opposition under Tuchel’s tutorship, whilst 56% of Man City’s trips to top-six Premier League finishers over the past five campaigns have also paid out for Under 2.5 Goals backers with Pep Guardiola’s group producing restrained displays in the matches that matter.
Naturally the stalemate stands out when goal expectancy is lower. However, backing Under 2.5 Goals at Stamford Bridge allows us to support both the 0-0 and 1-1 draws, as well as 1-0 or 2-0 victories for either side, essentially covering off six of the top eight favourites in the correct score market, which seems a smarter avenue of attack for the titanic tussle.
Watford vs Newcastle
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Watford 5/4 | Draw 23/10 | Newcastle 11/5
An intriguing encounter from Vicarage Road pits newly-promoted Watford against perennial crisis club Newcastle in what could prove to be an entertaining dust-up.
Newcastle may head to Hertfordshire without the services of Callum Wilson but showed plenty of attacking intent during a thrilling 1-1 draw against Leeds last weekend.
Allan Saint-Maximin’s influence remains key to the Toon’s prospects, although Joe Willock, Miguel Almiron and Joelinton can all play their part in a more expressive Magpies set-up.
The visitors have fired a solitary blank this season – a match in which Wilson missed a sitter against Aston Villa – and Steve Bruce’s boys have now managed to get on the scoresheet in 13 of their past 16 Premier League games when including the backend of 2020/21. Playing with more abandon in the final-third, Newcastle will expect to notch again this weekend.
Watford are yet to keep their sheets clean this term, although the Hornets have produced a few lively efforts of their own in the final-third.
Ismaila Sarr has been joined by Emmanuel Dennis on the opposite flank to provide the newcomers with menace and ingenuity – the pair dovetailed brilliantly during last weekend’s well-earned 3-1 triumph at Norwich.
The hosts will certainly fancy their chances of causing Newcastle numerous headaches based upon the Magpies’ defensive numbers.
The Tynesiders have shipped two or more in four of their five outings, and have managed just four shutouts in 28 Premier League games this calendar year, three of which were achieved against relegated outfits.
Based on how Newcastle’s clash with Leeds played out, this should be really fun watch with BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE the standout selection at a best price of 10/11.
Leeds vs West Ham
- Kick-off time: 1500 BST, Saturday
- Match Odds: Home 2/1 | Draw 11/4 | Away 5/4
Leeds toiled across the opening five rounds of action. The Whites are winless in 17th and ranking fifth-bottom for Expected Points (xPoints).
Based on closing line prices, the West Yorkshire club were expected to have tabled almost twice the points tally their performances have deserved, and now Marcelo Bielsa’s squad have been hit by injuries.
Centre-back options Diego Llorente and Robin Koch are injured, Pascal Struijk remains suspended and reliable Luke Ayling faces a late fitness test.
Further forward, Patrick Bamford is a confirmed absentee for Saturday, whilst Raphinha and Jack Harrison are considered major doubts, causing issues in both boxes for Leeds.
Unsurprisingly, the market has moved firmly in West Ham’s favour with the Hammers welcoming back talisman Michail Antonio to the squad.
David Moyes’ men also boast an injury-free squad and have impressed during the early exchanges of the campaign, generating the fourth-best expected goals for (xGF) total.
An area of interest for the Elland Road encounter could be set-pieces. No side scored more goals from dead-ball situations than West Ham last term whereas Leeds topped the charts for set-piece goals conceded.
Already in 2021/22, Bielsa’s boys have been breached from dead-ball situations and the hosts’ patched up backline appears fragile on paper.
The Hammers have numerous targets to aim for from Aaron Creswell’s delivery but new boy KURT ZOUMA TO SCORE A HEADER could provide punters with a bit of value at 9/1.
The Frenchman has had two headed attempts in three appearances for France already this season, and scored five headed goals in 22 Premier League starts for Chelsea last term.
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