Five games should not be enough to make or break a Premier League season.
For Manchester United and Tottenham, however, Saturday’s meeting at Old Trafford already carries the tension of a match neither can afford to lose.
United have collected five points from their opening five fixtures and sit 12th in the Premier League table. Tottenham are bottom with two points, no victories and a goal difference of minus six. Between them, two of England’s wealthiest clubs have won once in 10 league matches.
There have been occasional signs of encouragement. United responded to their opening defeat at Hull by beating Ipswich 5-2, while their 4-0 Champions League victory over Sabah suggested Michael Carrick’s side retained some of the attacking confidence built during the second half of last season. Those performances have proved the exception.
A 2-2 draw at Everton was followed by a 1-0 home defeat to Manchester City and a laboured 1-1 draw with winless Fulham. United have not kept a clean sheet in the league and have repeatedly struggled to sustain pressure after promising spells. The speed and conviction that characterised Carrick’s first months in charge have largely disappeared.
That contrast is uncomfortable for the manager.
Carrick won 11 of his 16 league games after replacing Ruben Amorim last season, losing only twice and collecting more points than any other Premier League side during his spell. That run earned him the permanent job, but it was accompanied by warnings that United’s results exceeded the quality of their performances.
Their start to the new campaign has begun to resemble a correction.
The optimism generated by the investment of the past two summers has also faded quickly. Matheus Cunha, Bryan Mbeumo and Youri Tielemans have added quality, but Carrick has yet to establish a balanced attacking structure around them.
Cunha has often looked isolated when used through the middle, Mbeumo has not always occupied the areas in which he is most dangerous and Bruno Fernandes is carrying too much of the creative burden.
United’s problems are not confined to possession. Their midfield can be played through too easily, while the defence has struggled whenever the press is broken.
The absence of a settled back four has not helped. Injuries sustained or aggravated during the international break have added further uncertainty, with Fernandes, Kobbie Mainoo, Marcus Rashford, Benjamin Sesko, Patrick Dorgu and Noussair Mazraoui among those whose fitness has caused concern.
Tottenham would gladly exchange problems. Roberto De Zerbi’s side have taken just two points and scored only twice in the league. Their 3-2 defeat at home to Aston Villa at least ended a run of four matches without a goal, but the scoreline flattered Spurs.
Villa controlled long periods and exposed the lack of cohesion within a team reshaped by another expensive summer.
The numbers make grim reading. Tottenham opened with a 3-0 defeat at Brentford, lost 2-0 at home to Newcastle and then recorded goalless draws against Nottingham Forest and Everton. Their Carabao Cup campaign ended with a 3-1 defeat at Liverpool, leaving the FA Cup as their only realistic route to a trophy.
De Zerbi’s methods were always likely to require patience. His teams are asked to invite pressure, build through tight spaces and manipulate opponents before attacking quickly.
When the passing is precise and the movements are properly coordinated, the approach can create some of the most attractive football in the league.
When confidence is low, it can leave defenders taking risks without the collective understanding required to survive them.
Spurs currently resemble a team caught between ideas. They are attempting to play with greater control but remain vulnerable when possession is lost. Their build-up can be slow without drawing opponents far enough forward, leaving attacking players receiving the ball against an organised defence.
Dominic Solanke has been deprived of consistent service, while the players operating behind him have struggled to turn possession into clear chances.
The volume of change offers some mitigation. De Zerbi inherited a squad needing renewal and more than £300 million was spent during the summer. Sandro Tonali, Omar Marmoush, Savio, Jan Paul van Hecke and Mateus Fernandes were among the additions, but assembling an expensive group is not the same as constructing a coherent team.
Tottenham’s hierarchy will expect signs that the new pieces fit together.
This makes United a strangely suitable opponent. Spurs will see a defence that has conceded in every league game and a midfield that can become stretched. If De Zerbi’s players can evade the first press, they should find room to attack.
Equally, United will welcome a Tottenham side whose commitment to playing out from the back could provide opportunities for Mbeumo, Cunha and Rashford to force errors high up the pitch.
The tactical contest may therefore be decided by which team is more willing to simplify. United need aggression without losing their shape. Tottenham need bravery without recklessness. Neither side can afford another match in which adherence to an ideal comes at the expense of basic control.
Carrick is under greater immediate pressure because United entered the season expecting to build on last year’s revival. A home match against the league’s bottom club is the sort of fixture they are supposed to win, regardless of injuries or tactical uncertainty.
Failure would leave them with five or six points from six matches before difficult games against Atletico Madrid, Leeds, Bournemouth and Chelsea.
De Zerbi’s position is hardly comfortable. Tottenham appointed him to lead an ambitious rebuild, but a sixth league game without victory would turn a poor start into a genuine crisis. Even if the board remains patient, supporters will be less inclined to tolerate talk of transition if a heavily reinforced team remains at the bottom.
Victory would not solve everything for either club. It would, however, restore some belief and provide evidence that the respective projects are moving forward. Defeat would leave one manager searching for explanations that are already wearing thin.
That is why, unusually for a match in early October, Manchester United against Tottenham feels like a game with consequences extending far beyond three points.
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