Football betting tips: Carabao Cup
1.5pts Pascal Struijk 1+ shots at 12/5 (bet365)
0.5pt Struijk 2+ shots at 12/1 (bet365)
It hasn't taken long for VAR to hit the headlines this season, with Erling Haaland and Manchester City the beneficiaries as officials wrongly overruled the on-field decision and awarded what proved to be the only goal of Sunday's Manchester derby.
Manchester United had every right to feel aggrieved, but the controversial nature of their defeat provided a convenient distraction from the reality of a thoroughly underwhelming performance.
Michael Carrick's side had a man advantage from the 23rd minute and yet for long spells, given how easily City were able to dominate possession, you could have been forgiven for thinking they were the team with a player fewer.
It will certainly be a concern that a 4-0 thrashing of Azerbaijani minnows Sabah is so far the only showing United can hang their hat on, with four points from four Premier League games a reflection of their inability to deliver consistent performances.
They remain defensively vulnerable, conceding seven times already in the top flight and allowing an average of 1.3 expected goals against (xGA) per game - a hugely concerning number given their favourable schedule against two newly-promoted teams, Everton and a City side who were down to 10 men for 70 minutes.
BRIGHTON are not the team they would choose to meet right now.
Albion are streets clear of the rest of the division in all attacking metrics this term, scoring the most goals (13), creating the most xG (10.2) and big chances (19) and averaging the most shots on target (6.0) per game.
Only Chelsea (4) have scored more than Brighton's three set-piece goals, and with that an area United continue to struggle in it is worth targeting more success in those situations.
It was an angle I went for on Sunday but City's early red card scuppered its chances. Even so, Josko Gvardiol managed to have a shot from a set-piece, meaning an opposing defender has done so from a dead-ball situation in every United match this season.
None have scored since Hull duo Nobel Mendy and Semi Ajayi on opening weekend and with PASCAL STRUIJK a little short at 11/1 to score anytime backing him in the SHOTS market is the way to go.
Fabian Hurzeler tends to change half his team for the Carabao Cup and always rests captain Lewis Dunk. With Struijk yet to start since joining from Leeds for £20m he is almost certain to come into the XI.
After scoring five times in back-to-back seasons he failed to find the net last term, but still racked up 3.0 xG in the league at a shots per 90 average of 0.95. He had multiple attempts in 19% of his appearances, but only hit the target in 13%.
He is therefore backed to have 1+ and 2+ SHOTS at 12/5 and 12/1 respectively, rather than the 7/1 for 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET.
Given that 85% of his attempts last term came with his head, the 10/1 for 1+ HEADED SHOTS ON TARGET is a sizeable bump should you be tempted, and if you're interested he is 40/1 for 2+ SHOTS ON TARGET - an understandably big price as it's not something he managed at all last season, and achieved only twice across the previous two campaigns in the Championship.
This is the Manchester United defence we're talking about though...
For what it's worth, were this a league match I'd be tempted to take the visitors at 3/1 but with the added uncertainty of a cup game, United remaining something of an enigma and the fact defeat by City was a rare blemish on Carrick's outstanding home record (W10 L2) since arriving in January, I'll leave the 1x2.
Should Brighton make a raft of changes and the price drifts even further, they are probably worth backing.
Odds correct at 10:00 BST (15/9/26)
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