Saturday's early game is the small matter of the Manchester derby, with United taking on City. Jake Osgathorpe previews the game, providing a best bet.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Under 2.5 Goals at 6/5 (General)
After the last meeting between these two sides, if you would have told me that Manchester United would head into the second game against Manchester City just four points behind their rivals, I would have likely laughed.
It looked as though the gap between the two sides was monumental, yet since that game, it does appear to have narrowed considerably.
From a basic perspective, United have collected more points per game (2.30) than City (2.11) since the 6-3 demolition.
From a detailed perspective, Erik ten Hag's side have posted an expected goal difference (xGD) per game of +0.81 to City's +0.97, but those figures are much closer than would have been expected at the start of the season.
United's success since the last derby has been built on a solid defensive foundation, with ten Hag's side allowing just 0.95 xGA per game which better's City's 1.07 during the same span, and they will have to lean on that when welcoming their 'noisy neighbours' on Saturday.
City were shocked in the Carabao Cup this past midweek by Southampton, which isn't the best preparation for this, but there was every chance Pep Guardiola's side were looking ahead to this match and were caught out.
They will be ready for this game, especially after disappointment at St. Mary's, and they are a solid away team, allowing just 0.99 xGA per away game this season, so a work-in-progress United attack that is yet to show long-term consistency could well be halted.
While City do create plenty on the road (2.12 xGF per game), it's rare we see them absolutely blow teams out away from the Etihad, scoring three or more in three of eight away games compared to six of nine home games.
I expect defences to be on top in this one, and that tends to be the case when the pair meet at Old Trafford. UNDER 2.5 GOALS has landed in all four of the last head-to-head's at the Theatre of Dreams compared to two of seven at the Etihad, so games on the red side of Manchester tend to be lower-scoring.
Notably, the Under 2.5 Goal bet has landed in 62% of City away league games this season, and since United were pummeled in the reverse fixture, three of their five home games have gone under - the two that went over coming against Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth.
The underlying data paints these two sides as very strong defensive outfits, so we could be in for a cagey encounter.
Manchester United v Manchester City best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Under 2.5 Goals at 6/5 (General)
Score prediction: Manchester United 0-1 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 1500 GMT (12/01/23)
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