Football betting tips: Super Sunday
1.5pts Tijjani Reijnders 1+ shot on target at 21/20 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Manchester City to win to nil at 27/10 (BetVictor)
Alex Keble
Manchester United have a long and unfulfilling history of getting a result just when they need it the most – or the least, depending on your perspective.
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s instincts to sit back and counter claimed some major scalps in the midst of crisis, prolonging the inevitable, dragging the corpse through another few weeks at Old Trafford, and Erik ten Hag had a similar knack, most famously winning the 2024 FA Cup final to tear up United’s plans for the summer.
The 98th-minute Bruno Fernandes penalty at home to Burnley a fortnight ago wasn’t quite one of those moments, but there is nevertheless a similar vibe about Ruben Amorim. Beating Manchester City at the Etihad and sparking yet another false dawn would be the most perfectly United thing to do, so it will probably happen.
There is precedent in this fixture, too. Even at their lowest ebbs United seem to do well in the derby, winning four times at the Etihad in the Pep Guardiola era, or 25% of his home Premier League defeats.
The reason for the consistency here is in the inevitable tactical restraint shown by successive United managers, none of whom have gone to Man City and expected to be able to stand up and compete.
It’s always the same: reserved football, a low block, and counter-attacks designed for the sucker-punch win. It often works, and increasingly so over time as Guardiola gets in his own head about how to combat the reactive approach.
Most recently - United’s 2-1 win at City in one of Amorim’s first games in charge - Guardiola deployed a peculiar narrow diamond 4-4-2 presumably designed to limit the visitors’ ability to break through the centre.
It succeeded in creating a restrictive, stodgy game of football and Man City would have won 1-0 was it not for two inexplicable defensive errors late in the game.
Guardiola could do worse than try the same tactic again, given the direction Amorim has taken Man Utd over the summer.
They are considerably more direct thanks to the runs of Bryan Mbeumo and Benjamin Sesko and the dribbling of Matheus Cunha, all of whom operate in the central column of the pitch.
The timing is unfortunate for City, who under Guardiola have never looked so porous through central midfield. Across the first three league matches of the season City have struggled to control the middle or screen against counters, with Tijjani Reijnders caught ahead of the play and nobody quite making sense of the Kevin De Bruyne void.
This is the space – behind Reijnders, in the inside forward pockets where we find Mbeumo and Cunha – that United can dominate.
Guardiola cannot afford to let that happen. Three points from three games is already the worst start he has ever made to a league season and with so many new parts to integrate - with a new tactical structure to build on the fly - more dropped points before next week’s trip to the Emirates would put City somewhere close to crisis territory.
A draw more or less leaves both on the precipice. It’s been a while since a Manchester derby has felt this loaded with meaning, a long time since both clubs in the city were staggering around.
Not since City’s 2008 takeover have United been in a position to twist the knife. They can, maybe should, seize it on Sunday.
Score prediction: Man City 1-2 Man Utd
Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill
This fixture has a tendency to underwhelm. Remember the last one? Exactly.
The pressure is kind of on the hosts, having lost their last two games, and Pep Guardiola’s rebuild looks a fair bit away from completion. The Cityzens looked good for an hour against Brighton but lost and were masters of their own downfall against Tottenham.
United have a habit of pulling the rabbit out of the hat when it comes to the big fixtures under Ruben Amorim.
This season, they were impressive against Arsenal after going a goal down and snatched three points late against Burnley with a Fernandes penalty, granted the latter isn’t exactly a big fixture.
Last season, they dramatically won late at the Etihad, drew 2-2 at Anfield and progressed with 10 men on penalties in the FA Cup at the Emirates.
At the prices available, it's difficult to be excited by the Red Devils; this is the shortest they have been at the Etihad in the league since 2017.
Score prediction: Man City 0-0 Man Utd
Joe Townsend
The ease with which opponents have been able to cut through Manchester City in their opening matches of the season will have concerned Pep Guardiola, and doubtless provided the last nudge required for him to sanction a move for Gianluigi Donnarumma, one of the best shot-stopping goalkeepers in the world.
It's not yet clear whether he'll start on Sunday, but it certainly feels unlikely he will play back-up for long.
Luckily for City they now face a team who simply cannot score goals from open play, with last season's issues still very much to the fore for Ruben Amorim.
United have found the net four times in three league games via two own goals and a penalty, with another missed spot-kick by Fernandes at Fulham inflating their total xG to imply they have been racking up the chances.
At the other end, Burnley and Fulham easily exposed United's own frailties through the middle of the pitch, and ultimately in a battle of relatively high stakes due to the low ebbs each club finds itself in, I'm happy to side with the fundamentally stronger outfit and take MANCHESTER CITY TO WIN TO NIL at 27/10.
I was tempted by the general 6/4 about both teams to score 'no' but with both teams difficult to trust, taking the bigger price to a smaller stake is instead advised.
Score prediction: Man City 2-0 Man Utd
Jake Osgathorpe
I've covered bets for this game in my column and I do think things have lined up nicely for United to get a result. City have a raft of injuries, Amorim has had Pep's number and United could be accidentally more balanced.
Amorim faced Pep three times last season and remained unbeaten, winning twice, and injuries to Matheus Cunha and Mason Mount could work in his favour, with Bruno Fernandes perhaps being forced to play in one of the number 10 slots as opposed to central midfield.
That could make them better in midfield and forward areas, with their best player getting the ball in more dangerous parts of the pitch. City's defence remains a concern with major absentees and a clear vulnerability in transition, making it hard to trust Pep's side at the moment.
The Cityzens have only beaten Wolves this season, a side I fancied for the drop, losing to a half decent Tottenham and a good Brighton side, so a half decent United team do have a chance. Performances have been good for the Red Devils despite the noise about results.
I fancy them to get something, as they did in both league games last season.
Score prediction: Man City 1-1 Man Utd
Tom Carnduff
We often fall into the trap of thinking the City squads of recent years boasted significant depth. It’s just not true.
Sure, they’re blessed with far more talent than most but when a couple of injuries hit, Guardiola is left with limited options and can be forced to utilise players in new positions. That was particularly the case in defence last season.
Absentees in attack this weekend should see a more advanced role for TIJJANI REIJNDERS - the midfielder found the net in the opening weekend hammering of Wolves.
It’s an element of his game we did see throughout his spell at Milan. Reijnders netted 10 goals in 37 Serie A appearances last season, with three coming in 10 Champions League outings.
He’s seen at least one shot in all three of his Premier League appearances for City and the 21/20 on 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET looks a decent bit of value considering his likely position further up the pitch supporting Erling Haaland.
The 3/1 and thereabouts on a goal anytime is also worth consideration if you want something a bit bigger but the price for one effort on target is strong enough with the additional ‘safety net’ of not requiring that to fly in.
Score prediction: Man City 2-0 Man Utd
Odds correct at 1630 BST (12/09/25)
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