Manchester City vs Aston Villa betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Jhon Duran to be carded at 12/5 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
The Premier League title race took another twist after Sunday's stalemate between Manchester City and Arsenal.
The Gunners were the happier with the point, while a share of the spoils means Man City head into this midweek round three points off the top, and with Arsenal kicking off 45 minutes before them on Wednesday, Pep Guardiola’s side could re-take to the pitch four points behind Mikel Arteta’s men.
With the hosts 2/7 on to win this match, the outright market may be the best way to get them onside here.
Assuming the title trio all win in midweek, a victory for the Cityzens would keep them within striking distance of the top of the table. City then host Crystal Palace at the weekend whilst Liverpool play at Old Trafford and Arsenal head to the Amex.
So, Pep’s side could end the week in a much better position then they started it which is why the 2/1 (bet365) available for them to win the league may be the best way in here.
Premier League winner 23/24 odds (via Sky Bet)
- 5/4 - Liverpool
- 15/8 - Manchester City
- 5/2 - Arsenal
Odds correct at 1230 (02/04/23)
Although a win looks a tall order for Aston Villa, they have European ambitions of their own to maintain.
A point from their games with Tottenham and West Ham opened the door for Spurs but the 2-0 win over Wolves at the weekend helped relieve the pressure for Unai Emery.
Although the Villans will draw confidence from the 1-0 win in the reverse, heading to the Etihad without their talismanic striker Ollie Watkins dents their chances of a result massively.
What are the best bets?
In Watkins' absence JHON DURAN should start upfront at the Etihad.
The Colombian has made 19 appearances for Villa but only started three times which tells you everything you need to know about his role in the squad.
Despite only 265 minutes of top flight football this campaign, the 20-year-old has netted twice and picked up five yellow cards.
Duran's most recent card came after an argument in his 45 minute cameo against Wolves at the weekend but his devious repertoire also features time-wasting and classic foul play.
Last season, Duran was brought on in the 90+1 minute of his side's 3-0 win over Newcastle and booked two minutes later so you can only imagine what kind of damage he can cause from the off.
At 12/5, his price TO BE CARDED is the play on Wednesday.
BuildABet @ 23/1
- Manchester City to win
- Jack Grealish to score or assist
- Jhon Duran to score
- Jhon Duran to be carded
Frustrations boil over at the Etihad... 😬 pic.twitter.com/arhcznAjlD
— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) March 31, 2024
Pep was seen gesticulating with Jack Grealish after the full time whistle on Sunday evidently frustrated with something the former Villa-winger had done during the draw with Arsenal. It would not be a surprise to see a reaction from the England international as he welcomes his boyhood club.
Team news
Man City's defensive issues were compounded at the weekend as Nathan Ake was withdrawn in the first half of Sunday’s draw with Arsenal meaning the Dutchman joined Kyle Walker, John Stones and first choice keeper Ederson in the treatment room.
After being ruled out by Pep Guardiola, Stones made a shock appearance on the bench at the weekend but did not play any part. Although it would not be a surprise to see him play on Wednesday, he may have to settle for a spot on the bench once more.
Stefan Ortega should continue between the sticks, Rico Lewis will replace Ake and Jack Grealish could start from the off against his boyhood club.
As for the visitors, Unai Emery has issues at the other end of the pitch as Ollie Watkins picked up a hamstring injury at the weekend that will keep him out of Wednesday’s game.
In his absence, Jhon Duran will spearhead the Villans attack with Mousa Diaby operating in behind.
John McGinn serves the last game of his suspension so Morgan Rodgers should start on the left with Douglas Luiz partnered by Youri Tielemans in the middle of the park.
Predicted line-ups
Manchester City: Ortega; Lewis, Dias, Akanji, Gvardiol; Rodri, Kovacic; Foden, De Bruyne, Grealish; Haaland
Aston Villa: Martinez; Konsa, Carlos, Torres, Moreno; Bailey, Luiz, Tielemans, Rogers; Diaby, Duran
Match facts
- Manchester City have won 17 of their last 18 Premier League home games against Aston Villa (L1), winning the last 13 in a row since a 2-0 loss in April 2007.
- Following their 1-0 win at Villa Park in December, Aston Villa are looking to secure their first league double over Manchester City since the 1962-63 campaign.
- Aston Villa have won just one of their last 30 away league games against reigning top-flight champions (D6 L23), beating Manchester United 1-0 in December 2009. The Villans have lost their last nine such games by an aggregate score of 29-7.
- Manchester City have won 27 of their last 29 Premier League games played on a Wednesday (D1 L1), with their sole defeat in that run coming against Aston Villa in the reverse fixture. At home, they’ve won their last 19 Wednesday league games, and are unbeaten in 30 (W26 D4) since a 1-0 loss to Tottenham in May 2010.
- Manchester City have won 19 of their last 21 Premier League games in April (D1 L1), and are unbeaten in 11 since a 2-1 home loss to Leeds United in 2021.
- Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last five Premier League away games (W3 D2), though their last defeat on the road was in Manchester (2-3 vs Man Utd in December). The Villans last had a longer unbeaten run away from home in the competition between November 2008 and February 2009 (7).
- Aston Villa’s shot conversion rate is 14.4% this season, their highest on record (since 1997-98) in a single Premier League campaign. In the same timeframe, their record of 14.4 shots-per-game is their third highest in a season, after 2002-03 (16.2) and 2001-02 (14.7).
- Leon Bailey scored Aston Villa’s winner against Manchester City in the reverse fixture – the last Villa player to score home and away league goals against the Citizens in the same campaign was Juan Pablo Angel in 2003-04.
- Moussa Diaby has been involved in four goals in his last four Premier League appearances for Aston Villa (1 goal, 3 assist), despite starting just one of these games.
- Ollie Watkins has scored nine goals away from home in the Premier League this season – the last Aston Villa player to net double figures on the road in a single top-flight campaign was Tony Hateley in 1965-66 (16).
Odds correct at 1310 BST (02/04/24)
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