Manchester City continue their push for the title as they host West Ham on Wednesday. Tom Carnduff has found value in his best bet.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Rodri to score or assist at 11/4 (General)
Not only are Manchester City the clear favourites in the Premier League title betting, it's 4/9 that they don't lose any of their final six fixtures of the season.
They're trailed Arsenal for a while, with the Gunners spending 93.9% of the season top of the league prior to City's win over Fulham on Sunday. They shouldn't have a way back now - City can continue their run with victory on Wednesday night.
West Ham looked like they were going to virtually secure safety on Saturday before defeat to Palace left them five points clear of the drop. The priority for the visitors should be keeping the goal difference as small as possible.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Wednesday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Man City 1/5 | Draw 6/1 | West Ham 12/1
Once again, Pep Guardiola's side find themselves a very short price for success in front of their own supporters. It's another City game where the outright market provides little appeal.
Hardly a surprise when they've won 14 of their 16 league games at the Etihad this season. A remarkable average of 3.38 goals per game sits alongside this - they've found the net at least four times on eight occasions.
Against bottom-half sides, City currently have an aggregate score of 25-4 in their favour. West Ham may have seen a recent upturn, but we can expect City to have numerous opportunities to strike.
A number of players are worth considering here, but I'm intrigued by the 11/4 available with multiple bookmakers for RODRI TO SCORE OR ASSIST in the contest.
The midfielder is better known for his defensive position but he contributes in attack - he's returned two goals and six assists in his 31 league games so far.
The two he's scored have come from 47 shots and 4.48 expected goals (xG), meaning he could easily have had a few more on his tally by this stage. His expected assists (xA) tally is 4.48.
Rodri contributed an assist in their recent home win over Leicester - taken off after 53 minutes to rest - while he's been averaging 1.3 key passes per home game compared to 0.8 away.
He'll be facing a West Ham side who have been conceding both chances and goals. Across the last four, they've had eight against from an xG figure of 8.86.
With the hosts likely to be on the front foot through, the value comes in backing RODRI to have some goal involvement.
Manchester City v West Ham best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Rodri to score or assist at 11/4 (General)
Score prediction: Manchester City 3-0 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1610 BST (01/05/23)
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