The first leg of the Champions League semi-final between Manchester City and Real Madrid takes place on Tuesday. Jake Osgathorpe previews the game, selecting his best bets.
Football betting tips: Champions League
2pts Manchester City to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 27/20 (Coral)
1pt Kevin De Bruyne to be carded at 7/1 (Unibet)
Manchester City's quest to win a Champions League has found some relative consistency of late.
After being knocked out at the quarter-final stage three times in a row between 2017/18 and 2019/20, City were beaten finalists in 20/21 and are back at the semi-final stage this season.
Standing in their way of a second successive final is the all-time record winners of the Champions League, Real Madrid.
Carlo Ancelotti's side have already knocked out PSG and Chelsea en route to this stage, and shouldn't be underestimated, though City are firm favourites to qualify with both the bookies (2/5 - 71%) and the Infogol model (1/2 - 67.1%).
It won't be straight forward for Pep's side against the La Liga champions-elect, but they should prove too strong in this first leg at the Etihad, and a MANCHESTER CITY WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS appeals at the prices.
City were made to work hard by a very defensive Atletico Madrid team in the last round, but Real won't be as defensive here, which should provide the hosts with more space to operate in attack and increase the likelihood of a home win.
Real, while getting past Chelsea, were second best according to expected goals (two-leg xG: RMA 2.14 - 4.70 CHE), shipping plenty of chances against the Blues, while relying on clinical finishing at the other end in order to progress.
It was the same story against PSG in the last 16, where Los Blancos were comfortably second best for 180 minutes of the tie, mustering up just 0.4 xGF before being gifted a lifeline by a goalkeeping error.
In short, Real have been lucky to get this far, and sooner or later that luck will run out.
Away from home in the Champions League, Real have posted a negative xG process (1.30 xGF, 1.60 xGA per game), and come up against a home juggernaut who create plenty of chances and concede few in the Champions League (2.36 xGF, 0.71 xGA per game).
There are question marks around the availability of key defenders for City (John Stones and Kyle Walker), adding to the blow of Joao Cancelo being suspended for the first leg, but that shouldn't pose too many issues for the hosts, who are expected to win a controlled contest.
Another angle I like the look of is a player card bet, with referee Istvan Kovacs a great appointment for card backers.
The Romanian official has brandished an average of 5.1 yellow cards per game across all competitions this season (33 games), while also showing eight red cards.
In eight games across the Champions League and Europa League this term, he has averaged 5.4 yellows, so isn't shy about getting his book out.
I am really keen to back whoever ends up playing at right-back for City to be carded, as they will be up against Vinicius Jr, who is one of the most fouled players in Europe, but given the uncertainty around who that may be with potential absentees, that bet will have to wait until after the line-ups are announced.
Instead, the big price around KEVIN DE BRUYNE TO BE CARDED caught my eye, as the Belgian does have a tendency to make cynical tackles in big games.
He was booked in both legs of City's Champions League semi-final tie with PSG last season, and over the past five UCL campaigns has been carded nine times across 2845 minutes of action, meaning he is running at an average of 0.30 cards per 95 minutes.
Ready to have your mind blown? We can back him at 7/1 to be carded in this game, yet Casemiro, who is the favourite for a card at 7/5, has averaged just 0.24 cards per 95 minutes over that same timeframe.
Dani Carvajal (second-favourite to be booked at 13/8) has a cards per 95 minutes rate of 0.29 over the last five Champions League seasons, Nacho (third-fav at 15/8) has averaged 0.28 and Rodri (13/5) has averaged a lowly 0.17.
So, the price on KDB seems plain wrong, and like the two Madrid players mentioned, the Belgian will be in the thick of the action on Tuesday.
Manchester City v Real Madrid best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Manchester City to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 27/20 (Coral)
- 1pt Kevin De Bruyne to be carded at 11/2 (bet365)
Score prediction: Manchester City 2-0 Real Madrid (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1500 BST (25/04/22)
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