Manchester City v Manchester United tips: FA Cup final best bets and preview
It's a Manchester derby in the FA Cup final, and Tom Carnduff is backing three best bets at prices of 9/2, 15/2 and 12/1.
Football betting tips: FA Cup
1pt Aaron Wan-Bissaka to be shown a card at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
1pt Erling Haaland to be shown a card at 15/2 (bet365)
1pt Christian Eriksen to score anytime at 12/1 (Sky Bet)
Manchester City are two wins away from securing a remarkable treble, but the FA Cup final is the tougher contest despite the Champions League carrying more weight.
Another trip to Wembley won't faze Pep Guardiola's side but their local rivals were victorious in controversial circumstances when the two sides last met in January. They do have a decent enough recent record against City despite their dominance of English football.
United's players will be well aware of the history - the only English club to win the treble that City are chasing - and their desire to stop the 'noisy neighbours' joining them could see this contest descend into chaos.
As expected though, it's the blue side of Manchester who take clear favouritism for victory in 90 minutes. It's 2/9 that they are lifting the trophy in the late afternoon sun.
Rather than gamble on the short prices available in the outright market, there are a few players to target for involvement across normal time.
Three cards were shown in each of the two league meetings, and there could be the potential for more given the occasion and the fact that referee Paul Tierney has averaged 3.85 cards per game so far this season.
Two prices jump out, and the first of which is the 9/2 available on AARON WAN-BISSAKA TO BE SHOWN A CARD. He should be starting at right-back for United.
He is unlikely to have direct attacking involvement here. His job will be a defence-first approach as he tries to keep Jack Grealish as quiet as possible. That led to a season-high four successful tackles in the last meeting between the two teams.
All it needs is for one of the challenges to be mistimed though and he could go into the book, particularly if it's one slightly further up the pitch as City are looking to start an attack of their own.
Wan-Bissaka was shown two yellows in his final six Premier League games and both of those coming in away games is worth noting.
It's no surprise that Grealish was the second-most fouled player on average in the most recent top-flight campaign - being brought down 2.8 times per contest.
Lining up alongside Grealish in that City attack will be the prolific ERLING HAALAND, and there is value in going down an unusual route by backing him TO BE SHOWN A CARD here.
His staggering 36 league goals - alongside eight assists - rightfully caught the headlines but he did pick up five yellows across the course of the campaign. That is the joint-most in this City squad.
Haaland committed at least two fouls in 24% of his Premier League starts, with a huge total of four coming in two outings. Surprisingly, he managed to avoid a card on both occasions.
There's the potential for a mistimed challenge as he is looking to close down a defender, or even stopping a United attack from a set-piece situation, it just feels a generous price given his track record this season.
There is also the factor that he will play the majority of the game - unless City race into a 4-0 lead at half-time.
Finally, the biggest price play of the preview concerns the United side of things, and I'm willing to gamble on CHRISTIAN ERIKSEN TO SCORE ANYTIME with odds of 12/1 available.
He should return to the midfield here having come off the bench in the win over Fulham, and I'm not put off by the fact he only has one goal in the Premier League this season.
There's a couple of reasons for this. The first of which is the number of shots he has been taking in recent outings. Prior to the final game of the season, he had at least one in each of his previous nine league games.
Five of those saw at least two posted, with three of those having three. Across that period, he's averaged 0.25 xG per 90 minutes from an average of 2.25 shots.
I'm also intrigued to see how United line up for this one. It wouldn't be a surprise to see Eriksen deployed in an advanced position again with Bruno Fernandes pushed out wide.
If that's the case, it only enhances his chances of a goal in what could become a high-scoring contest.
It should be an entertaining one at the national stadium. City are a short price for success, meaning the value can be found in backing ERIKSEN, HAALAND and WAN-BISSAKA to have some involvement.
FA Cup final best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Aaron Wan-Bissaka to be shown a card at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
- 1pt Erling Haaland to be shown a card at 15/2 (bet365)
- 1pt Christian Eriksen to score anytime at 12/1 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Manchester City 3-2 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 18/1)
Odds correct at 1250 BST (01/06/23)
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