Fresh from a 2pt winner at a price of 14/5 on Friday night, Tom Carnduff previews Manchester City's clash with Leeds, selecting his best bet in the process.
2pts Leeds to have 10+ total shots at 13/8 (Betfair)
Manchester City hold a commanding 14-point lead at the top of the Premier League. Leeds currently sit 11th on 42 points and will avoid relegation this season. With seven and eight games remaining for these two sides, both have very likely achieved their objective for the 2020/21 campaign.
For City, their main focus is on Champions League success and a slim one-goal lead against Dortmund may result in changes here. They see their return leg on Wednesday, and with the Premier League title all-but-secure, there will be some temptation for Guardiola to rest his big hitters.
He's already discussed how Leeds are one of worst teams to play between two Champions League games because of their intensity. In the midst of a hectic schedule, he may not want to risk some of his preferred XI but they should still get the job done.
Potential City changes should give Leeds the opportunity to strike in this game. They are huge outsiders, with 10/1 the biggest price available, and while their results against the top teams haven't been the best they have often scored in those games.
Sky Bet make it 4/6 that Leeds get at least one here, which looks interesting, but the one bet that looks too generous is the 13/8 with Betfair on LEEDS TO HAVE 10+ TOTAL SHOTS in the game. Only City (15.4), Liverpool (15) and Chelsea (14.3) see more shots on average per game than Leeds (14.2) in the Premier League this season.
It does feel a bit hit-and-miss when it comes to backing Leeds shots but they have demonstrated that they can hit double figures against good teams this season. Looking at the current top-eight, Leeds had 10+ in games against Everton, Tottenham, West Ham, Manchester United, Leicester and Manchester City.
This is not trying to say that they will win the game but it's a surprise to see the 10+ total shots price as generous as it is given their record so far this season. Leeds are intent on attack and will continue to play their way regardless of the scoreline. If City go 6-0 up, Leeds will continue attacking.
Southampton and Aston Villa are two mid-table teams to hit the ten-shot mark at the Etihad in 2021 too. While City's defence is solid, they have shown that they can concede chances, particularly against teams who look to hit them quickly on the counter-attack - that is a big strength of this Leeds team.
City should win this, as they have done in games across the large majority of the season, but Leeds' involvement should make it a great contest to watch. They have (mostly) been winning games where they are supposed to and treating games against those at the top almost as a free hit - the visitors can more than contribute with efforts on goal.
Score prediction: Manchester City 3-1 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 1400 BST (08/04/21)
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