Manchester City face Atletico Madrid on Tuesday night and Tom Carnduff has found value in a card-based bet.
Football betting tips: Champions League
1pt Marcos Llorente to be carded at 4/1 (Unibet)
Atletico Madrid have already beaten one Manchester side in the Champions League - getting the better of United over two legs in the round of 16 - and now attention turns to Premier League leaders City who remain fancied for European success.
City's campaign in this competition has been fairly straightforward with Sporting brushed aside in their round of 16 tie. They are favourites for success here and should do so - the perfect warm-up to Sunday's crucial Premier League clash with Liverpool.
It may not be as simple as the odds suggest though with Atletico proving that they can be a tough outfit to face under Diego Simeone's guidance.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Tuesday
TV channel: BT Sport 2
Manchester City 1/3 | Draw 4/1 | Atletico Madrid 17/2
Infogol's model doesn't disagree with the odds. City are given a 72% chance of victory in the first leg and it's hard to disagree given their very strong form at home in all competitions.
They may have drawn with Sporting in their last encounter at the Etihad but that could be expected with the number of changes they made. The tie was already over and yet they still posted an xG figure of 1.94.
Instead of looking at the outright result, the value in this one comes in the cards market and the attention is immediately grabbed by the 4/1 available on MARCOS LLORENTE TO BE CARDED.
A bizarre refereeing decision denied us a 16/1 winning card double in Atletico's win at Old Trafford last month - Llorente clearly taking someone out with no intention to win the ball - but we can be confident he will catch the referee's attention at some point here.
He averages 1.0 fouls per La Liga game with the average jumping up to 1.4 in Champions League outings. It's a surprise to see that he has only been booked five times this season - although two of those have come in this competition.
Referee István Kovács showed a huge total of 11 cards in his last Champions League game - Lille's 2-1 win over Sevilla in the group stage - while he has been in charge of a City game already.
There were four yellows when he oversaw City's 5-1 hammering of Club Brugge - a point of interest being that this game also saw the opposition right-back booked. This is where Llorente is likely to be on Tuesday night.
He'll likely come up against Raheem Sterling or Jack Grealish, players who can cause issues and problems to opposition defenders.
Rather than take the short price on a City victory, backing LLORENTE in the card market represents good value.
Manchester City v Atletico Madrid best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Marcos Llorente to be carded at 4/1 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Manchester City 1-0 Atletico Madrid (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1545 BST (04/04/22)
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