Manchester United face Atletico Madrid on Tuesday night and Tom Carnduff picks out his two best bets for the game.
Football betting tips: Champions League
1pt Stefan Savic to have 1+ total shots at 15/8 (Sky Bet)
1pt Rodrigo de Paul & Marcos Llorente to be carded at 16/1 (bet365)
Manchester United come into this contest on the back of a 3-2 victory over Tottenham. Cristiano Ronaldo was the hero but it could have been a different story on expected goals (xG) - Spurs 'winning' that scoreline 1.81 - 0.99.
Attention now turns to the Champions League with this tie in the balance following a 1-1 draw in the first leg. Even then, Atletico posting 1.42 xG to United's 0.41 shows the attacking balance of that contest.
The La Liga side couldn't make their opportunities pay though and that's why they are now in a tricky situation. Wolves are the only side to win at Old Trafford inside 90 minutes since Manchester City did so at the beginning of November.
Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Tuesday
TV channel: BT Sport 2
Manchester United 23/20 | Draw 9/4 | Atletico Madrid 5/2
Despite United's strong(ish) home form, there is some reluctance to back them given the way some of those have gone. Luck has played some part in the points gained and there just isn't the confidence there to get involved in the outright market.
Instead, there are two avenues to explore. The first of which comes in the shots market and take STEFAN SAVIC TO HAVE 1+ TOTAL SHOTS at a price of 15/8 with Sky Bet.
There is an element of playing the prices with this selection but I am surprised to see odds as generous as this available given what he has shown for Atletico so far.
The centre-back has been averaging a shot every two games in La Liga, a rate roughly reflecting previous seasons with averages of 0.3 posted in recent competitions.
Atletico had eight corners in the first leg and a repeat of that - or anywhere near - means Savic will have opportunities to get a shot away. The great thing about this price is that it is just for the shot, it doesn't have to be on target.
Elsewhere, cards are always of interest in Champions League contests and this game has all the potential for plenty. There were a total of nine when the two sides played out a 1-1 draw a couple of weeks ago.
Slavko Vinčić's appointment as referee should play a part in a high tally again. In Europe's elite club competition this season, he's averaged 4.88 cards shown per game.
Atletico sit 8th for average fouls per Champions League game and they should play their part when it comes to bookings. There are a number of candidates to choose from.
At a best price of 16/1, we're taking the double for RODRIGO DE PAUL & MARCOS LLORENTE BOTH TO BE CARDED. They contribute to the 13.6 fouls per outing that Atletico see.
De Paul has been averaging 1.5 fouls per Champions League game while Llorente is going at 1.2. The latter's four fouls in the first leg led to him being carded and a repeat can happen here.
For de Paul, it's a surprise to see that he hasn't been carded as much throughout the course of the campaign. He's been carded six times in La Liga despite 14 games with two or more fouls. He's yet to see a card in the UCL despite 2+ fouls in four of his six contests.
It really does feel like a case of picking any of a number of players for some interesting doubles here - particularly if things get heated late on - and anything looking around 10/1 or above will always provide appeal.
Manchester United v Atletico Madrid best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Stefan Savic to have 1+ total shots at 15/8 (Sky Bet)
- 1pt Rodrigo de Paul & Marcos Llorente to be carded at 16/1 (bet365)
Score prediction: Manchester United 1-1 Atletico Madrid (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1330 GMT (14/03/22)
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