Football betting tips: Manchester derby
1pt Antoine Semenyo to score anytime at 9/4 (bet365)
1pt Rayan Cherki to provide 1+ assists at 7/2 (BoyleSports)
There is nothing in the playing squads, management, season's statistics or recent form that suggests this derby should end in anything other than a routine away win.
And yet even prior to Ruben Amorim's implosion as Manchester United boss this would have been a fixture where the usual rules don't quite apply. Over the past 18 months, despite largely struggling, United have lost only one of their five meetings with City - two if you include a Community Shield draw that was settled on penalties.
Most memorably Erik ten Hag's side delivered an unexpected FA Cup final win in May 2024 and Amorim's team produced a dramatic, last-gasp victory at The Etihad seven months later in what was the Portuguese coach's first derby.
But perhaps even more surprisingly, during a horrendous run of form in the second half of last season United still managed a goalless draw at Old Trafford in April.
Last five Manchester derby results
- 25 May 2024: Man City 1-2 Man Utd (FA Cup)
- 10 Aug 2024: Man Utd 1-1 Man City (Community Shield)
- 15 Dec 2024: Man City 1-2 Man Utd (Premier League)
- 06 Apr 2025: Man Utd 0-0 Man City (Premier League)
- 14 Sep 2025: Man City 3-0 Man Utd (Premier League)
Then there is the fact this is Michael Carrick's first game as interim head coach.
You'd be right to scoff at the notion of new manager bounce when there is little evidence of its existence, but when it comes to United there does appear to be a trend.
Since Sir Alex Ferguson's retirement in 2013, nine of the 11 men to lead Manchester United have avoided defeat in their first game (W5 D4 L2).
Of those who have taken charge mid-season, none of the seven have been beaten (W3 D4).
There have been some tricky games in that sample too, with Ruud van Nistelrooy beginning at home to Chelsea and Carrick's previous spell as caretaker boss starting with a trip to Stamford Bridge.
That being said, this Manchester United have won only one of their last six games at Old Trafford and under interim interim Darren Fletcher failed to win at Burnley before losing at home to Brighton.
It would be folly to back them, but given all this context, the fact United have Bryan Mbeumo and Amad Diallo back from the Africa Cup of Nations and that City have drawn their last three Premier League games, there are simply better bets away from the 1x2.
City were seriously impressive in winning 2-0 at Newcastle in the first leg of their Carabao Cup semi-final on Tuesday, following on from an astonishing 10-1 thrashing of Exeter in the third round of the FA Cup.
New signing ANTOINE SEMENYO started and scored in both matches, controversially having a second goal disallowed on Tuesday. His arrival has provided a directness to City's attacking play that they previously lacked.
He is 9/4 TO SCORE ANYTIME and continue both his strong run of form and excellent record against United.
The former Bournemouth man has scored in each of his last three matches, and in six of his last eight. He found the net at Old Trafford earlier this season and in both fixtures against the Red Devils last term.
In a match where the bookmakers have over 2.5 goals at 8/15 another of City's players worth getting onside is RAYAN CHERKI.
The midfielder has been in excellent form and looked as unplayable as new team-mate Semenyo after coming off the bench at St James' Park, ultimately scoring what felt like an almost inevitable second goal deep in stoppage time.
That was his sixth strike of the campaign in all competitions, but it's his creativity that has been particularly stunning with 10 ASSISTS in 24 appearances, seven of which have come in 16 league games.
At 7/2 to provide 1+ ASSISTS he is also advised.
Of players to have played at least 500 top-flight minutes his 0.7 assists per 90 is a full 0.2 better than than the next most productive (Vitaly Janelt and Bruno Fernandes).
It's debatable whether Pep Guardiola will start both Cherki and Semenyo, but at the prices I'm prepared to back both.
Odds correct at 15:45 GMT (16/1/26)
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