New research claims Manchester United were the 'luckiest' team in the Premier League last season, with Liverpool deemed the 'unluckiest'.
While Jose Mourinho's runners-up gained six points from incidents in their favour such as incorrectly disallowed goals, wrongly awarded penalties and improper red card decisions, Jurgen Klopp's men lost out on 12 points.
Jurgen Klopp has since responded to this table, saying: "What I learned is that you have deserved luck and we will work on that. That we will deserve it even more than last year. I was surprised about the numbers, of course. I'm not sure I would have thought that. But it felt in a lot of moments last season a bit like that, to be honest.
"Nobody gives you anything back in that life for that. I didn't understand how they did it, to be honest, but it looked quite complicated. To explain luck is obviously complicated."
A study by ESPN Luck Index, Intel and the University of Bath (click here for full research) examined how the Premier League would look if 'luck' were not a factor and found that Liverpool would have finished second behind Manchester City, with Tottenham third and United fourth.
Perhaps more importantly, Stoke would have avoided relegation, with Huddersfield instead going back down to the Sky Bet Championship.
Key findings
- Manchester City remain champions, but don’t break the 100-point barrier, with the model predicting they would finish on 97 points
- Liverpool lost out on 12 points due to incidents including incorrectly disallowed goals, wrongly awarded penalties and improper red card decisions
- Manchester United were the luckiest team, gaining six points from incidents in their favour; adjusted position in table would have been fourth
- Stoke would have earned 37 points, escaping relegation on goal difference and sending Huddersfield down
- Brighton’s first season would have seen them finish six positions higher, with £11.5 million in additional prize money, if adjusted for luck
- Leicester would have finished 14th, with a difference of £9.6 million in prize money
- Bad luck cost the Gunners 11 away points (though luck also earned them three points at home). Overall, Arsenal would have secured eight additional points, leapfrogging London rivals Chelsea into fifth place, whose points total didn’t change.
- Burnley remain in seventh, but the analysis showed they were the second luckiest team, and would have finished with four fewer points;
- West Brom would still have propped up the league in 20th, albeit with 33 points instead of 31.
How does this luck index work?
The ESPN Luck Index used a sophisticated predictive model which crunched hundreds of data points while a research team working in collaboration with former Premier League referee Peter Walton analysed footage from every game of the season to see which of the following major incidents should have been overturned.
- Goals that should have been disallowed
- Incorrectly disallowed goals
- Incorrectly awarded penalties (that were scored)
- Penalties that were not awarded but should have been
- Incorrect red-card decisions
- Red-card incidents that were missed
- Goals scored after injury time overran
- Deflected goals
After these incidents were identified, factors such as team strength, form and home advantage were used to predict an alternative outcome of the match. So Liverpool's 0-0 draw with Manchester United on October 14 was simulated to a 1-0 win for Klopp's men as they should have been awarded a penalty in the 63rd minute.
How the adjusted table looks
(Real life points in brackets)
- Man City (100) 97
- Liverpool (75) 87
- Tottenham (77) 77
- Man United (81) 75
- Arsenal (63) 71
- Chelsea (70) 70
- Burnley (54) 50
- Newcastle (44) 48
- Brighton (40) 46
- Everton (49) 44
- Crystal Palace (44) 42
- West Ham (42) 41
- Watford (41) 41
- Leicester (47) 40
- Southampton (36) 40
- Bournemouth (44) 38
- Stoke (33) 37
- Huddersfield (37) 37
- Swansea (33) 34
- West Brom (31) 33
Commenting on the research, Sam Lyon, Lead Editor of ESPN.co.uk, said: "It shows that the clichés of ‘the table doesn’t lie’, and ‘luck evens itself out over the season’ aren’t always true, and puts some teams’ performances in a new light."
Assistant Professor Thomas Curran, University of Bath, said: "The ESPN Luck Index powered by Intel analysed more than 150 incidents throughout the season, and used data ranging from recent form and team strength to game state and home advantage. Then we simulated each game thousands of times to model how it should have turned out – it is one of the most detailed pieces of research we have ever conducted."
Former Premier League referee Peter Walton, who oversaw the research, added: "The results of the ESPN Luck Index powered by Intel demonstrate the impact and importance of refereeing decisions on a game. With the Premier League deciding not to introduce VAR for the coming season, it is interesting to see how much luck plays a part in the way the league unfolds.”
Scott Gillingham, UK esports & Gaming Lead, Intel said: "Technology is becoming more valuable than ever in the sports industry and as we can see in the ESPN Luck Index, we can evaluate the difference between being the luckiest vs the unluckiest teams in the Premier League.
The full results of ESPN Luck Index powered by Intel can be seen online at ESPN.com/luckindex and on the ESPN app.
