Football betting tips: Champions League
2pts Manchester City (-1 handicap) at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
1pt Manchester City (-2 handicap) at 12/5 (Paddy Power)
1pt Manchester City win to nil at 29/20 (BetVictor)
Glance at the Premier League table or listen to some of the hyperbolic reaction to Manchester City's form 'slump' (draws at Chelsea and at home to Liverpool) and you could begin to think there is a genuine title race afoot in England's top flight.
There isn't.
City have barely broken sweat domestically and still sit just a point off the top, leaving them set to deliver what has become their trademark: a perfectly paced Premier League campaign.
They've been just as predictable in Europe too, racing into the Champions League round of 16 by winning their opening four group games, yet again.
Expect them to sweep Leipzig aside on Tuesday evening.
What are the best bets?
Pep Guardiola's men have scored three goals in each of their four group-stage victories, all of which have been won by at least two goals.
The 10/11 about MANCHESTER CITY (-1) HANDICAP looks a plum bet given that record, a steep increase on the 1/3 being offered for a home win.
On top of that impressive European record, City have covered the handicap in six of their nine league wins this term.
Prior to Saturday's hard-fought 1-1 draw with Liverpool they had scored 17 goals in five matches in all competitions, which is enough to nudge me into backing the -2 HANDICAP at a standout 12/5 with Paddy Power.
Their most recent home Champions League tie against Young Boys ended in a 3-0 victory.
In that win over Young Boys, the Swiss team failed to register a single shot on goal, which brings us to MANCHESTER CITY WIN TO NIL as our final selection.
Fear not that RB Leipzig, currently fifth in the Bundesliga, have scored 29 goals in 12 league matches so far this season.
They are over-performing their expected goals (xG) total by more than eight and sit well adrift of the division's current top four in terms of creativity when using non-penalty xG as the measure.
City's madcap 4-4 draw at Chelsea on the eve of the international break is the only occasion an opponent has created more than 1.0 xG against them since mid-September.
Frankly, for a fixture where City are priced so short in the 1X2 it is a delight to have so many ways of getting them onside.
And difficult to envisage anything other than a straightforward home win.
- Jeremy Doku 1+ assists
- Man City (-2.0) handicap
- Over 3.5 goals
- Benjamin Henrichs to be carded
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
Guardiola has said it is highly likely he will have the same squad to select from as he did at the weekend, meaning the impressive JEREMY DOKU is likely to start again in Jack Grealish's likely absence from the XI.
He gave Trent Alexander-Arnold a torrid time on Saturday and with two bookings already in the Champions League this season, Leipzig right-back BENJAMIN HENRICHS could be in for a busy night.
Team news
Grealish is unlikely to recover from illness in time to start but could make the City bench, while John Stones is likely to play some part as he continues his return to fitness.
Josko Gvardiol was on media duty ahead of facing his former club and could come in for Nathan Ake. Mateo Kovacic and Matheus Nunes are expected to be absent again. Kevin De Bruyne is a long-term absentee.
Experienced Leipzig forward Emil Forsberg is pushing for a start, meaning Youssef Poulsen could lose his place.
Timo Werner (groin), Dani Olmo (shoulder), Willi Orban (knee) and El Chadaille Bitshiabu (knee) all miss out.
Predicted line-ups
Man City: Ederson; Walker, Dias, Gvardiol; Akanji, Rodri; Foden, Silva, Alvarez, Doku; Haaland.
RB Leipzig: Blaswich; Henrichs, Simakan, Lukeba, Raum; Simons, Haidara, Schlager, Baumgartner; Forsberg, Openda.
Match facts
- This will be Manchester City’s sixth UEFA Champions League match against RB Leipzig, winning three of the previous five (D1 L1). On home soil, they’ve won 6-3 (September 2021) and 7-0 (March 2023).
- RB Leipzig have lost their last four away UEFA Champions League matches in England by an aggregate score of 20-3. They are looking for their first away win in England since February 2020, when they won 1-0 against Spurs.
- The last meeting between Manchester City and RB Leipzig at the Etihad Stadium ended in a 7-0 victory for the home side (March 2023). This remains the joint-biggest margin of victory for Pep Guardiola in a UEFA Champions League match (done three times), as well as Manchester City’s joint-biggest win in European competition (also 7-0 v FC Schalke 04 in March 2019).
- Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 17 games in the UEFA Champions League (W12 D5), with their last such defeat coming in May 2022 against Real Madrid (semi-final, second leg). In the history of the European Cup/UEFA Champions League, Manchester United are the only English team to have had a longer unbeaten run (25 games between September 2007 and May 2009).
- Manchester City striker Erling Haaland has scored more goals against RB Leipzig than against any other team in his club career, netting 11 times in seven appearances. They’re also the only team he has scored five goals against in a single game in his club career, doing so in a 7-0 win for Manchester City in March this year.
- Jérémy Doku has completed 17 of his 24 take-on attempts for Manchester City in the UEFA Champions League (71%). Despite only playing 146 minutes in the competition so far this term, no player has completed more take-ons than the Belgian winger through the first four matchdays.
Odds correct at 1700 GMT (27/11/23)
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