It is all square as Manchester City host RB Leipzig in the Champions League. James Cantrill picks out three best bets.
Football betting tips: Champions League
2pts Both Teams to Score at 10/11 (General)
1pt Konrad Laimer to be carded at 16/5 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pts Emil Forsberg to score anytime at 7/1 (bet365)
Manchester City laboured to victory in the Premier League at the weekend, only an Erling Haaland penalty could best an out of sorts, yet stubborn, Crystal Palace.
That did make it four wins from four for City, who are well into contention for the Premier League, FA Cup and Champions League.
In Europe's premier competition, their tie with RB Leipzig is finely balanced.
The first leg was very much a tale of two halves, the classic cliche.
City dominated the opening 45 minutes and deservedly took the lead via Riyad Mahrez 27-minutes in.
Pep Guardiola’s side saw 73% of possession and outshot the hosts seven to one but their failure to put the game to bed ultimately meant they had to settle for a draw.
After the interval, RB Leipzig were a different beast, generating 96% of their 1.37 xG in the second half.
Injuries could cost Marco Rose’s side here with Christopher Nkunku expected to join Peter Gulacsi, Abdou Diallo, Dani Olmo and Xaver Schlager on the sideline.
Man City v Leipzig (agg: 1-1)
Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Tuesday
TV channel: BT Sport 1
Home 4/11 | Draw 4/1 | Away 7/1
This match just stinks of goals as two sides with real offensive pedigree go head-to-head.
Last season's two clashes in the group stages saw the net bulge 12 times, nine of which were scored in meeting at the Etihad.
Domestically, City have found the net 166 times since the start of last season, finishing one shy of a century last term.
On the continent, the Citizens have averaged 2.2 goals over that period, finding the net in 79% of those 19 games, scoring two or more goals in nine.
In comparison to last season, Guardiola’s defence has not been as resolute. In the Premier League, they have averaged 0.92 goals against this campaign, it was 0.68 last season.
The underlying data suggests they have been fortunate not to concede more, shipping an xGA of 29.81 in the Premier League and Champions League but conceding 27 goals.
This bodes well for Rose’s men, and the visitors will fancy their chances of finding the net as they have only failed to do so in three of their 35 games in all competitions.
In the Champions League, Die Bullen drew their only blank during their trip to the Bernabeu, though they did generate an xG of 0.87 against Real Madrid and missed two ‘big chances’ (xG greater than 0.35).
At a shade under evens, backing BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE is the main play here.
I expect the Bundesliga boys to be amongst the goals in Manchester, and with that considered, I think it is worth touting one of their front men in the goalscoring market.
Christopher Nkunku is a doubt, Dani Olmo is also unavailable, which means we will likely see EMIL FORSBERG get the nod from the off and his price to SCORE ANYTIME appeals.
The Swedish frontman is in fine form netting in each of his side's last four league games. His most recent strike was from the spot, which obviously bodes well for this angle.
In a career spanning 447 appearances, Forsberg has found the net 109 times, giving him a goals per 90 average of 0.34.
He has made 33 appearances for Leipzig in the Champions League, scoring 10 times and assisting a further four goals.
The attacker has only found the net once in this competition this season but at 7/1, I think backing him to double this tally is worth a small play.
An appealing referee appointment, combined with the magnitude of the clash, could see plenty of bookings brandished at the Etihad.
Slovenian whistleblower Slavko Vincic is the man in the middle and he does not mind flashing the cards in the Champions League.
This season, he has dished out 19 yellows and a red card in four appearances, taking his tally in this competition to over 100 cards in 24 games.
At 16/5, KONRAD LAIMER’s price to be SHOWN A CARD looks too large.
The Austrian midfielder is yet to have his name taken in this competition but has picked up five domestically which is particularly impressive, considering he has only started 10 games.
He has 50 cards over the course of his career, giving him a cards per 90 average of 0.29 making anything over 3/1 for him to be carded here worth considering. It also goes a little way to explaining why he is as short as 7/4 elsewhere.
Man City v RB Leipzig best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Both Teams to Score at 10/11 (General)
- 1pt Konrad Laimer to be carded at 16/5 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
- 0.5pts Emil Forsberg to score anytime at 7/1 (bet365)
Score prediction: Man City 3-2 RB Leipzig (Sky Bet odds: 20/1)
Odds correct at 1540 GMT (13/03/23)
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