George Pitts has an exciting 6/4 tip for what he expects to be a one-sided affair at the Etihad...
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Man City v Newcastle (Etihad Stadium, 1730 BST, BT Sport 1)
There is never a good time to be playing Pep Guardiola's Manchester City, but facing them after they dropped points is even worse as they look to make amends.
Couple that with a winless start to the season and a midweek Carabao Cup defeat to lesser opposition for Rafa Benitez's men, and it could be a tough trip to the Etihad.
This has all the makings for a goal-fest in the home side's favour and it is hard to see otherwise.
City are a force at home - they have won 17 of their last 19 home matches and last season were beaten just once, scored 61 goals in 19 games at the Etihad (both in the Premier League).
Centurions City only strengthened their title-winning ranks over the summer while Rafa Benitez, who won just four on the road in 18/19, did not quite get his way with Newcastle in the transfer market.
Mind made up? We think so too...
Score prediction: Manchester City 4-0 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
The Citizens could field a similar XI to their last home outing - where they ran riot with a 6-1 victory over Huddersfield. Newcastle set up negatively against Chelsea last week on home turf and expect similar tactics again - except City have the quality to find openings and score for fun while Newcastle chances could be a rarity.
As we expect goals and a dominant match in City's favour they are just under evens to win both halves (9/10) and that looks like great value considering the amount they tend to score at home. The Citizens have been winning at both half-time and full-time in five of their last seven home matches with Newcastle and have scored at least three goals in six of their last seven matches against the Tynesiders (in all competitions).
Best bet: Benjamin Mendy to assist a goal at 6/4
Considering his start to the season, 6/4 for French full-back Mendy to assist a goal catches the eye instantly. He already has three assists in as many Premier League appearances this term and the width he provides going forward opens up just another avenue for City to create goalscoring chances. After missing pretty much all of last season with injury, Mendy has shown fans exactly why City forked out over £50m to secure his services from Monaco.
This looks like a great bet. If Guardiola opts with a similar line-up to the home win over Huddersfield, it is likely both Aguero and Jesus will start and you would not put it past them both getting on the score sheet. Aguero netted a hat-trick on that afternoon while Brazilian forward Jesus struck in the first half. With the creativity behind them, they should not be short of chances.
Selected RequestABet: Manchester City to score 2+ goals and 20+ Newcastle booking points at 5/4
- Man City are unbeaten in their last 21 top-flight games against Newcastle (W18 D3). It’s their longest ever unbeaten run against a specific top-flight opponent, as well as being Newcastle’s longest such winless run.
- Newcastle have lost each of their last nine away league matches at the Etihad, conceding 32 goals and scoring just six in reply.
- Man City have won their last nine Premier League home games against Newcastle – only against Wolves (10 between 1900 and 1937) have they had a longer winning run in the top-flight.
- Manchester City have won all seven of their Premier League matches in September under Pep Guardiola, scoring 26 goals and conceding just twice; Guardiola hasn’t lost a match in all competitions as a manager in September since September 2010 (Barcelona 0-2 Hercules) and is unbeaten in 41 games since (W35 D6).
- Newcastle have collected just six points in their last nine away Premier League games (P9 W1 D3 L5) since winning back to back away matches against West Ham and Stoke City.
- Sergio Aguero has scored 12 goals in just seven home Premier League appearances in 2018 – the same number scored at home by Chelsea as a team this calendar year.
- Newcastle have registered the lowest average possession figure in the Premier League this season (33.5%) while opponents Man City have the second highest (68.7%) behind Chelsea.
- Newcastle completed just 247 passes in their two Premier League matches against Man City last season – only Huddersfield completed fewer against an opponent during 2017-18 (202, also against Man City).
- Man City striker Sergio Aguero has scored 14 goals in his 11 Premier League appearances against Newcastle. Eight of these goals have come in his last two home games against them (5 in October 2015 and 3 in January 2018).
- Sergio Aguero’s 14 Premier League goals against Newcastle for Manchester City is a record for goals scored against an opponent for a single club.
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Odds correct as of 1545 at 31/08/18