Super Sunday sees the two Manchester clubs renew their rivalry at Etihad Stadium, and Jake Pearson has picked out his best bet for the first meeting of Pep Guardiola and Ralf Rangnick.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Both Teams to Score ‘NO’ at 21/20 (BetVictor)
The gulf between these two teams has been stark over the last few years, Manchester City excelling under Pep Guardiola while Manchester United lingered in the shadows, struggling to piece themselves together following Sir Alex Ferguson's departure.
But despite all this, the recent meetings between the two have been fairly evenly matched.
City have won just two of the last six head-to-heads, with just one of the last five Premier League meetings going the way of the blue side of Manchester.
United have not rolled over in recent Manchester derbies, and are not expected to again, themselves in the midst of a quiet revolution under Ralf Rangnick.
Kick-off time: 16:30 GMT, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Man City 4/11 | Draw 4/1 | Man United 7/1
United come into the weekend in fourth position in the league and are now unbeaten in their last six – 11 in terms of 90 minutes.
Their sole Premier League defeat under Rangnick remains their 1-0 loss to Wolves at the beginning of January, and though a stalemate at home to Watford last weekend was ultimately a disappointing result, the Red Devils created more than enough chances to take all three points – posting the ninth-highest xG total across Europe’s top five leagues.
United’s expected goals (xG) process has taken a significant upturn since the German coach was appointed, and though his good work is not quite yielding the immediate results many inside the Old Trafford boardroom would have hoped for, the performances have been good, and if they continue in the same manner, United will have a good end to the season.
As well as their unrivalled attacking talent, City also boast the best defence in the league, both in terms of actual goals conceded and expected goals conceded.
The Citizens are allowing just 0.75 xGA per game in the Premier League, but under Rangnick, United’s defence has also improved drastically – now conceding 1.17 xGA per game as opposed to 1.83 xGA per game across the 14 matches prior to the German’s appointment.
In fact, had United been performing at that rate all season, they would have the fourth-best defensive output in the league – behind only City, Liverpool and Chelsea – instead of the 12th worst, which they currently hold due to their early-season exploits.
Four of the last six teams they have played in the league have failed to create chances equating to 1.0 xG or higher, including West Ham – the fifth-most creative team in the division.
While many are hoping for a 100mph, no holds barred Manchester derby, the reality is, here are two of the best teams in the league at shutting down the opposition, and with the two managers in charge, particularly Rangnick, it is difficult to see emotions overriding tactics.
None of the last six meetings between these two in all competitions has seen both teams find the back of the net, which makes a price of 21/20 about BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE ‘NO’ an appealing one.
Only matches involving Wolves have seen 'BTTS NO' land on more occasions than games involving City, while no side has kept more clean sheets than the Citizens this term – nine of their 13 matches at Etihad Stadium have seen a shutout from Guardiola’s men.
Considering also that five of the seven clean sheets United have recorded this season have come under Rangnick’s charge, siding with only one or neither team to score in Manchester on Sunday looks a decent wager at odds-against.
Man City v Man United best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Both Teams to Score ‘NO’ at 21/20 (BetVictor)
Score prediction: Man City 1-0 Man United (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 0830 GMT (03/03/22)
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